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  4. > Poland Metals Report Q3 2014

Poland Metals Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 54 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
The economic recovery in Poland continues to gather momentum, with leading and coincident indicators -
particularly retail sales and wage growth - pointing towards improvements in domestic demand in addition
to the export-driven real GDP growth that arrived in the second half of 2013. The acceleration in euro area
growth, particularly in key trade partners such as Germany will continue to drive forward Polish export
growth. Furthermore, the recovery in international trade will continue to feed-through into the labour
market, resulting in positive employment gains as hiring improves.

Real GDP grew 2.7% y-o-y in Poland in Q413. While the reading was slightly lower than consensus
expectations for 2.9%, BMI had been cautioning for some time that market expectations for Polish growth
had been turning slightly too exuberant, despite the positive outlook. Nonetheless, the economic outlook for
Poland remains highly encouraging, and we recently revised up our growth forecasts for 2014 to 2.9%, from
2.6% previously. Although we are optimistic about Poland's growth prospects, we are more cautious
regarding metal consumption and production prospects. Key metal consuming segments such as autos and
particularly construction will underperform.

Table Of Contents

Poland Metals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ...... 9
Metals SWOT .............. 9
Industry Forecast ..... 11
Steel: Waiting On An Autos Sector Recovery ............. 11
Table: Poland - Steel Historic Data and Forecasts ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . . 15
Table: Poland - Steel Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Copper: Surplus To Stagnate ............ 16
Table: Poland - Refined Copper Production, Consumption and Balance ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . . . . . . . . . 18
Regulatory Development .............. 19
Table: Poland - Political Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Commodities Forecast ................. 21
Steel Price Forecast ... 21
Table: BMI Steel Forecast . . . . . . 21
Short-Term Outlook .. 21
Core View ............... 22
Global Steel Glut To Persist ............ 22
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term ........ 23
Consumption: Growth Decelerating .. 25
Excessive Chinese Exports .............. 26
Growing Arbitrage Between East and West ............... 27
Risks To Price Outlook ................... 27
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts . . 28
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, US$/tonne (ave) . . . . . . . . . 28
Commodity Strategy ... 29
Iron Ore: Fading Iron Will ............. 30
Steel: Global Glut To Weigh On Prices .................. 32
Aluminium: Fundamentals To Remain Weak ........... 33
Copper: All Eyes On China ............. 34
Lead: Outperforming Its Troubled Peers ................ 35
Nickel: Monthly Outperformer ......... 37
Tin: Outperforming A Weak Field .... 38
Zinc: Further Consolidation Likely ... 39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 41
Competitive Landscape ................ 42
Table: Europe - Largest Listed Metal Producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Company Profile ....... 45
KGHM .................... 45
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data . . . . . . . . . . 47
ArcelorMittal ............ 49
Company Overview .. 51
Company Strategy .... 51
Latest Financial Results ................. 53
Company Details ..... 53
Financial Data ........ 53
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data . . . . 53
Methodology ............. 54
Cross Checks .......... 54

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