Spain Metals Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 40 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Spain's metals sector is steadily improving once more. After three years of consecutive contraction in both domestic steel consumption and production, BMI is forecasting a turnaround with steel production returning to growth in 2014 and steel consumption in 2015 (after a contraction of 0.5% in 2014). Looking further ahead, we expect both steel consumption and production growth to accelerate year-on-year (y-o-y) from 2016 through to the end of our forecast period in 2018. Despite the forecasted gains, we believe economic growth in Spain will prove moribund and the local steel market will fail to return to pre-recession levels of consumption or production within our forecast period. In 2013 domestic crude steel consumption is estimated to have fallen 1.1% y-o-y to 11.38mnt (mn tonnes), while crude steel production is estimated to have fallen 0.5% to 13.57mnt. Given current trends in terms of both output and the state of domestic and external markets, the industry is unlikely to return to pre-2011 levels of output anytime soon. In order to compensate for poor domestic demand, recovery in the Spanish steel industry will largely depend on growth in exports of manufactured goods. Germany has been the chief target for Spanish steel exports, but the decline in the performance of the German manufacturing sector from mid-2011 is having a deleterious effect on export performance.

In early August 2013 ArcelorMittal announced its intension to restart coke oven batteries 7 and 8 in Avilés, northern Spain by mid-November, following their hot shutdown in December 2011, due to the fall in steel demand in Spain and Europe. This will help provide steel to the local automotive industry. This indicated growing optimism that the export-oriented Spanish automotive industry was set for growth in 2013. Acerinox is also predicting a recovery in the global stainless steel market in 2013, bolstered by the
automotive industry. However, the Spanish flat steel market is unlikely to recover its full momentum over the medium-term with packaging and consumer durables hit by high unemployment. At the same time, the long steel market has been hit by the collapse in residential construction.

Table Of Contents

Spain Metals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ... 10
Metals SWOT .... 10
Industry Forecast ..... 12
Steel Price Forecast .. 12
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 12
Short-Term Outlook . 12
Core View 13
Global Steel Glut To Persist ..... 13
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term . 14
Consumption: Growth Decelerating .. 16
Excessive Chinese Exports 17
Growing Arbitrage Between East and West . 18
Risks To Price Outlook ..... 18
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts . . 19
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, US$/tonne (ave) 19
Monthly Metals Update ...... 20
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer .... 21
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices ..... 23
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 ... 24
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 25
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds . 26
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 27
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks . 29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 31
Competitive Landscape .. 32
Table: Largest European Listed Metal Producers 33
Company Profile 35
ArcelorMittal .... 35
Company Overview . 37
Company Strategy ... 37
Latest Financial Results ... 39
Company Details .... 39
Financial Data 39
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data . 39
Methodology ...... 40
Cross Checks .. 40

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