Ukraine Metals Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 51 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Ukraine's metals sector will see modest growth over the forecast period, with a handful of new projects to increase production growth. Production will not return to pre-crisis highs, however, due to global overcapacity and steel prices not making substantive gains over 2013. There are no major expansions on the cards, and no major players in either the aluminium or steel industries have announced substantial investment plans. Figures recorded at the start of 2014 have been disappointing. Ukrainian companies manufactured 477,000mt of steel pipes during January-April 2014, according to figures released by Ukraine's cabinet of ministers. The steel pipe production was down 16.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), the figures revealed. The country's steel pipe production was recorded as 140,600mt in April 2014, up 3.6% month-on-month (m-om), according to the official figures. This does not bode well for the country's near-term outlook and for Ukraine's attempts to hit production targets, which BMI is predicting to increase y-o-y in 2014 and in each consecutive year through to the end of our forecast period in 2018.

Table Of Contents

Ukraine Metals Report Q3 2014
BMI Industry View ...... 7
SWOT ..... 9
Metals SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast ..... 11
Steel: Looking To Domestic Demand .. 11
Growth To Pick Up Thanks To Construction .... 11
Table: Steel Production and Consumption (000 tonnes, Unless Stated Otherwise) (Ukraine 2010-2018) . 15
Table: Ukraine - Steel Industry Historical Data, 2003-2012 ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) . . 15
Commodities Forecast ... 16
Steel Price Forecast .. 16
Table: BMI Steel Forecast 16
Short-Term Outlook . 16
Core View 17
Global Steel Glut To Persist ..... 17
Production: Rationalisation In The Long Term . 18
Consumption: Growth Decelerating .. 20
Excessive Chinese Exports 21
Growing Arbitrage Between East and West . 22
Risks To Price Outlook ..... 22
Table: Steel Data and Forecasts . . 23
Table: Global Steel Prices By Region and Product, US$/tonne (ave) 23
Monthly Metals Update ...... 24
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer .... 25
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices ..... 27
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214 ... 28
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed 29
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds . 30
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214 31
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks . 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 35
Competitive Landscape .. 36
Table: Largest European Listed Metals Producers . 38
Company Profile 41
ArcelorMittal .... 41
Company Overview . 43
Company Strategy ... 43
Latest Financial Results ... 45
Company Details .... 45
Financial Data 45
Table: ArcelorMittal - Key Financial Data . 45
RUSAL ..... 46
Latest Results .. 49
Table: Rusal - Supply Chain Analysis 49
Table: RUSAL - Key Financial Data . 50
Methodology ...... 51
Cross Checks .. 51

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