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Poland Mining Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Growth in the Polish mining sector will be modest over the coming years. The coal sector willbe overhauled as the government seeks to either restructure or close unprofitable mines. Copper output willstruggle as falling copper ore grades and weak prices are set to hinder growth. Nevertheless, the rate ofgrowth we forecast indicates that the country will remain one of the most significant players in theEuropean coal, silver and copper markets.

Downside RisksThe main downside risks to our forecasts are weak copper and coal prices, cheap coal imports and labourunrest in the sector. Due to our view for a sharp slowdown in Chinese economic growth and expectation forincreased copper supply, we expect lower copper prices over coming years. We forecast copper prices toaverage USD6,450/tonne over 2014-2018, significantly lower than their 2011 average of USD8,826/tonne.Combined with falling ore grades in Poland, these lower prices will significantly disincentivise investment in the sector. Lower commodity prices will also have the effect of squeezing miners' margins, precipitatingcutbacks and thus heightening the risk of industrial unrest. Poland's mining sector is comprised of strongunions and as such we highlight tense wage negotiations and potential strikes to affect the sector overcoming years.

Table Of Contents

Poland Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Inefficient MInes and Weak Prices Spell Trouble 11
Latest Developments 11
Structural Trends 12
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020) 14
Copper: Modest Growth As Falling Grades Take Their Toll 15
Key Developments 15
Structural Trends 16
Table: Copper Production Forecast (Poland 2012-2020) 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 18
Poland Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 18
Europe: Risk/Reward Index 19
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 21
Regulatory Development 22
Table: Political Overview 23
Table: Europe - Mining Regulatory Outlook 25
Commodities Forecast 26
Commodities Outlook 26
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 26
Competitive Landscape 27
Table: Poland - Major Mining and Metals Companies - Financial Data 27
Company Profile 28
KGHM 28
Table: KGHM - Key Financial Data 31
Jastrz?bska Spó?ka W?glowa (JSW) 32
Table: JSW - Key Financial Data 34
Regional Overview 35
Methodology 42
Industry Forecast Methodology 42
Sources 43
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 44
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 45

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