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Russia Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 79 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Russia's gold and coal production growth will be the sector's relative bright spots, while PGM'sand iron ore output growth will grind to a halt. Low metal prices, the country's inadequate infrastructureand Western sanctions will continue to limit the sector's production growth.

Latest Developments & Structural Trends

- With 157bn tonnes (bnt) of coal deposits, Russia's holds the second largest recoverable coal reserves inthe world. We expect Russia's coal production to grow from 392mn tonnes (mnt) in 2015 to 427mnt in2019, as production ramps up in the country's Kuznets basin. This would represent an average annualproduction growth of 2.3% during 2016-2020, significantly lower than the average 6.4% during2010-2014.

- We forecast Russia's gold output to grow from 8.0 million ounces (moz) in 2016 to 8.4moz in 2020. Thiswould represent an average annual growth of 1.5% during 2016-2020, significantly slower than 5.3%during 2011-2015.

- We have revised up our iron ore forecasts to 2020. We expect iron ore prices to average USD48.0/tonneduring 2016 and USD43.0/tonne in 2017, up from our previous forecasts of USD38.0/tonne andUSD40.0/tonne, respectively. Our upwards revision is predicated on the strong H116 iron ore price rallydue to increasing demand from Chinese steel mills (see: ' Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Only Short-TermBoost To Prices', May 5).

- We've revised down Russia's 2016 output forecast from 2.3% to -0.5% for 2016 due to weaker thanexpected output from Russian iron ore producer Mettaloinvest. Despite this, Russia's iron ore productiongrowth will be supported by the country's vast iron ore reserves and Metalloinvest's strategy to increaseoutput through innovation at the firm's existing mines over our forecast period to 2020. Russia holdsmore than 25bn tonnes of iron ore reserves, making it the third largest holder of reserves, after Australiaand Brazil, respectively. We forecast Russia's iron ore production to row from 107mn tonnes (mnt) in2016 to 117mnt in 2020, averaging annual growth of 1.8% during 2016-2020, showcasing consistentgrowth following 2.4% y-o-y during 2011-2015.

Table Of Contents

Russia Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Russia Mining Industry Value 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Growth To Be Supported By Eastwards Drive 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Russia 2015-2020) 11
Table: Russia - Distance From Coal Production Area To Shipping Seaport 18
Gold: Rouble Weakness To Support Output 20
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Russia 2012-2020) 20
Iron Ore: Subdued Growth Ahead 24
Table: Iron Ore Production (Russia, 2014-2020) 24
Nickel: Tough Times Ahead For Miners 29
Table: Russia - Nickel Mine Production Forecast 29
Palladium: Gradual Growth In Coming Years 33
Table: Palladium Production 33
Platinum: Reserves Offer Growth Potential In The Long Term 36
Table: Russia - Platinum Production 36
Table: Russia - Largest Platinum Projects 36
Industry Risk/Reward Index 40
Russia Risk/Reward Index 40
Europe: Risk/Reward Index 41
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 42
Regulatory Development 43
Commodities Forecast 47
Commodities Outlook 47
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 47
Competitive Landscape 48
Table: Russia - Key Financial Data 49
Company Profile 51
Polyus Gold 51
Table: Polyus Gold - Financial Data 53
SUEK 55
Table: SUEK Subsidiaries 57
Global Company Strategy - Norilsk Nickel 60
Table: Select Commodities - Price Forecasts 62
Company Analysis 62
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Projects 66
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Key Financial Data 68
Regional Overview 69
Methodology 76
Industry Forecast Methodology 76
Sources 77
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79

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