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Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 55 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter we have revised the forecasts downwards on account of many of themacroeconomic problems facing Kazakhstan and the fact that there are very few projects in the projectpipeline. This notwithstanding, we continue to expect growth - albeit at a more moderate pace thanpreviously forecasted - in Kazakhstan's power sector over BMI's 10-year forecast period to 2025, in termsof generation and consumption. Although coal will continue to maintain its dominance over our ten-yearforecast period to 2025, non-hydro renewables will grow rapidly, with a slew of foreign-financed wind andsolar projects in the pipeline. The government also plans to restart the exploitation of nuclear energy,helped by Kazakhstan's vast uranium wealth. Power production will comfortably meet demand, withKazakhstan's dependence on energy imports decreasing over our forecast period.

- We expect the Kazakh solar power sector to register limited growth over the next five years, as a result ofthe sporadic completion of only a small number of solar power projects. This will be in large part theresult of investment prospects in the sector being undermined by uncertainty over the country's economicoutlook and Kazakhstan's challenging business environment.

- In October 2015, Kazakhstan announced that, 65 of the largest Kazakh state-controlled companies in theoil and gas, transportation, energy and nuclear sectors, including Samruk Energo will be privatised viaan IPO between 2016 and 2020. The decision to sell a stake in the state-controlled energy companies wasprecipitated by both political and economic factors: the country's export-driven, hydrocarbon-basedeconomy suffered greatly amid crashing commodities prices, and mismanagement of its currencyexacerbated these problems further.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Kazakhstan Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 10
Table: Kazakhstan Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 21
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2014-2019) 23
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Kazakhstan 2020-2025) 23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 24
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 24
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 30
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Regulation and Competition 33
Pricing 34
Kazakhstan Power Projects Database 35
Table: Kazakhstan Power - Top 10 Projects By Capacity 35
Competitive Landscape 37
Samruk-Energo 37
KEGOC 37
AES 38
Company Profile 39
Samruk-Energo 39
Regional Overview 42
CEE Power Regional Overview 42
Glossary 49
Table: Glossary Of Terms 49
Methodology 50
Methodology And Sources 50
Industry Forecast Methodology 50
Sources 53
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 53
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 54
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 55

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