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  4. > Poland Power Report Q3 2016

Poland Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 69 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Recently elected Order and Justice (PiS) government's support for coal-fired generation andproposed punitive requirements for wind power developers will dampen investor interest and ensure thecountry's continued reliance on the strategically important coal sector for power generation. This will putPoland at odds with the EU over emissions and environmental targets.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We maintain our view that coal will dominate Poland's power mix, accounting for more than 75% of thetotal generation throughout our forecast period to 2025.

- According to reports by Greenpeace, in early 2016 Poland decided to scrap Choczewo as a potential sitefor the construction of the proposed nuclear power plant.

- In early March 2016, Polish government presented draft legislation, proposing crippling requirements forwind power developers. We believe these requirements, combined with the new PiS majoritygovernment's support for coal-fired generation, will have a detrimental impact on investor confidence inthe Polish wind power sector.

- As such, we downgraded our growth forecast for Poland's non-hydro renewables generation. We nowbelieve non-hydro renewables generation will average 3.4% expansion in the next ten years (down from4.9%), contributing 18.1% to the total power mix in 2025.

- In February 2016, Sweden-based Eltel signed two power transmission contracts for reconstruction ofhigh voltage substations with the Polish transmission grid operator PSE. The projects are in the Jasiniecand Joachimow regions and have a total value of approximately EUR25mn.

- In early 2016, Poland's largest energy utility Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) and GE signed anapproximately EUR40mn deal to upgrade generator and steam turbine assets at the Turow power plant.The upgrades are expected to increase the facility's output by 45MW.

Table Of Contents

Poland Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Poland 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Poland Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Poland Power Forecast Scenario 11
Table: Questions Remain Over Plans For New Coal 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 26
Consumption 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 29
Transmission And Distribution 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2014-2019) 30
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2020-2025) 30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 31
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 36
Poland Power Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 40
Regulation And Competition 40
Table: Proposed EU 2030 Energy And Climate Targets 41
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Poland Power Projects Database 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Tauron 46
PGE/PSE 48
ENEA 48
Energa 48
RWE/STOEN 49
Electrabel 49
Company Profile 50
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) 50
Regional Overview 56
CEE Power Regional Overview 56
Glossary 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Methodology 64
Methodology And Sources 64
Industry Forecast Methodology 64
Sources 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 67
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 68
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 69

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