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  4. > Russia Power Report Q3 2016

Russia Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 80 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our ten-year forecast for the Russian power sector remains muted - despite the country's richresource endowment and size of its market. As a contracting economy, a weakened ruble and prolongedgeopolitical uncertainty keep a hold of the country, development projects of Russia's power sectorencounter increasing financial and political headwinds.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- The broader economic and political backdrop frames our views on the Russian power sector in 2016. Theannexation of Crimea and perceived Russian belligerence towards the West has shattered investorconfidence and will deter significant foreign investment. Meanwhile, global oil prices of below USD30/bbl in early 2016 (expected to remain around USD40/bbl for 2016) have made the government's budgetassumptions untenable, which will necessitate further spending cuts. At the same time, tight creditconditions - exacerbated by international sanctions - will drag on economic growth.

- Weak electricity demand will result in overcapacity and feed into lower capacity payments in some ofRussia's wholesale electricity pricing zones - weighing on the margins of utilities. Russia awards capacitypayments to existing power plants - through competitive auctions to ensure plants remain capable ofdispatch during periods of high electricity demand. Capacity auction payments for 2016 in Russia's firstpricing zone (spanning European Russia and the Urals) fell 15.3% y-o-y on account of overcapacity amidweak demand.

- Providing electricity supply to the annexed Crimea region will remain high on Russia's agenda, asMoscow looks to integrate the peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin switched on two power linesin late December 2015, with plans to turn on another two in 2016. In November and December 2015,Crimea was facing serious electricity shortages as a result of bomb blasts - carried out by unidentifiedassailants - which destroyed two pylons in Ukraine on November 22 2015.

- Georgia, Iran, Armenia and Russia agreed in April 2016 to create a joint electricity market by 2019. Themarket will initially be open for large-scale users who use high-voltage networks. Following a successfulfirst stage, the market may be liberalised for small and medium power users.

Table Of Contents

Russia Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Russia 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Russia Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Russia Power Forecast Scenario 12
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Table: Russia's Energy Strategy 2030 17
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 28
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 29
Transmission and Distribution, Import And Export 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2019) 33
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2020-2025) 33
Industry Risk/Reward Index 34
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 40
Russia Power Risk/Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Risks 41
Market Overview 42
Key Policies And Market Structure 42
Regulation And Competition 42
Sustainable Energy Policies 43
Pricing 44
Russia Power Projects Database 46
Competitive Landscape 50
Federal Grid Company (FGC) 50
Inter RAO UES 51
Gazprom Energoholding 51
EON 52
Enel 52
Company Profile 54
Inter RAO 54
EON 58
Regional Overview 67
CEE Power Regional Overview 67
Glossary 74
Table: Glossary Of Terms 74
Methodology 75
Methodology And Sources 75
Industry Forecast Methodology 75
Sources 78
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 78
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 80

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