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  4. > Argentina Power Report Q3 2016

Argentina Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The outlook for Argentina's power sector is improving steadily due to the reforms introduced bythe Macri government. The country will continue to suffer from tight power supply and a weak electricityinfrastructure over the coming months, but we expect the market to offer growing opportunities over thecoming years as the government will prioritise plans to attract investment into new conventional andrenewables power capacity.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- An increase in electricity tariffs, greater access to financing and a general improvement in the businessenvironment will all benefit the Argentine power sector. While at present Argentina suffers from morethan a decade of underinvestment in the distribution and power generation sector, the economic andindustry-specific reforms introduced by the Macri government will create significant businessopportunities in the country over the coming years.

- Our Country Risk team forecasts that the Argentine economy will contract 0.6% in 2016 as consumptionfalls in response to elevated inflation. Nevertheless, it expects rapidly improving investor sentiment todrive a strong economic rebound from 2017, with real GDP growth to average 4.3% between 2017 and2021. In turn, this informs our forecast for power consumption in the country to rise at an average annualrate of 3.7% between 2016 and 2021.

- The Macri government is creating the conditions for much greater financing availability for the powersector by reintegrating Argentina into capital markets and increasing investor confidence in the country.For example, representatives of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) said in May 2016 they areconsidering investing USD800mn in Argentina between now and December 2016, with renewable energybeing a key target.

- The government is undertaking initiatives that we expect to boost international investment into newpower generating capacity. Crucially, it has announced it will hold auctions to contract both thermal andrenewable energy projects over the coming months. As investor interest in the market is strengtheningand the government is taking on currency risk by offering power purchase agreements (PPAs) in USdollars, we expect the auctions to prove popular. Investment in renewables will be supported by a numberof incentives introduced by Argentina's new renewable energy law and enacted by the government inMarch 2016.

Table Of Contents

Argentina Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Argentina Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Argentina 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Argentina 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Argentina Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Thermal Power Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Table: ARGENTINA'S PIPELINE OF THERMAL POWER PROJECTS 14
Nuclear Power Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 21
Table: Overview Of Incentives For Renewables Under Federal Act 27191 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2020-2025) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2019) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2020-2025) 26
Electricity Consumption 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2019) 27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2020-2025) 28
Transmission and Distribution 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2019) 29
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2020-2025) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2014-2019) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Argentina 2020-2025) 30
Industry Risk Reward Index 31
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 31
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 37
Risk/Reward Index 38
Rewards 38
Risks 38
Market Overview 40
Key Policies And Market Structure 40
Regulation And Competition 40
Sustainable Energy Policies 41
Table: New Renewable Energy Law - Main Provisions 42
Pricing 42
Argentina Power Projects Database 43
Competitive Landscape 46
Pampa Energia 46
Transener 47
Cammesa 47
Edenor 47
Endesa/Edesur 47
Edelap 48
AES Argentina 48
Company Profile 49
Pampa Energia 49
Table: New Debt Issuance Points To Investor Confidence 51
Regional Overview 54
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 54
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 59
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 61
Methodology And Sources 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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