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  4. > Mexico Power Report Q3 2016

Mexico Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 61 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The launch of a wholesale power market and the success of the first long-term energy auction inMexico underscore the multiple business opportunities that will be on offer in the country's reformed powersector. Coupled with robust macroeconomic prospects, significant public investment and our forecast forstrong growth in power consumption, these regulatory advancements support our positive outlook for theMexican power sector over the coming decade - with natural gas and renewables to outperform.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Mexico's wholesale electricity market was launched in late January 2016. Under the reformed powermarket, the state-controlled utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) - broken down insubsidiaries with budget and functional independence - and private market participants make offers to selland buy electricity and ancillary services in day-ahead, hour-ahead and real-time markets. In addition,power generators are able to sell electricity to the CFE (via long-term and medium-term auctions tosupply regulated clients) or directly to qualified consumers via bilateral contracts. Finally, the newmarket structure introduces Clean Energy Certificates (CEL).

- Solar and wind power dominated Mexico's first long-term energy auction, reinforcing our positiveoutlook for the Mexican renewables sector. Finalised in early April 2016, the tender awarded 15-yearpower purchase agreements and 20-year clean energy certificates (CEL) to 12 new solar power projectsand five new wind farms. Mexico's low cost of labour, ideal natural conditions and significant domesticmanufacturing capacity for solar and wind components allowed companies to present bids at verycompetitive prices. With power delivery from the projects expected to start in 2018, we have revised upour forecasts for solar and wind power capacity and generation in Mexico over our 10-year forecastperiod.

- On March 29, the agreement for the unbundling of the CFE was published on Mexico's official gazette,with the functional and regional separation of the company expected to be completed in June 2016. Underthis regulation, the CFE will be separated in a number of independent companies that will carry out theactivities of power generation, transmission, distribution and commercialisation. The units will havefunctional and regional diversification and will be financially distinct from each other.

Table Of Contents

Mexico Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecast (Mexico 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Mexico Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2015-2020) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Mexico 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Mexico Power Forecast Scenario 12
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Non-Hydropower Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Nuclear Power Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 25
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2019) 27
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Mexico 2020-2025) 27
Industry Risk Reward Index 28
Mexico Power Risk/Reward Index 28
Rewards 28
Risks 29
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 29
Table: LATIN AMERICA POWER RISK/REWARD INDEX (SCORES OUT OF 100) 35
Market Overview 36
Key Policies And Market Structure 36
Regulation And Competition 36
Sustainable Energy Policies 39
Pricing 39
Mexico Power Projects Database 41
Competitive Landscape 43
Table: Pemex Cogeneration Projects 44
Comisión Federal de Electricidad 44
Iberdrola 47
Gas Natural Fenosa 47
Regional Overview 49
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 49
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 54
Glossary 55
Table: Glossary Of Terms 55
Methodology 56
Methodology And Sources 56
Industry Forecast Methodology 56
Sources 59
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 60
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 61

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