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  4. > Venezuela Power Report Q3 2016

Venezuela Power Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 52 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Venezuela is once again experiencing significant power outages, with record low water levelsthreatening the operation of major hydroelectric plants in a country where ageing transmissioninfrastructure is already resulting in high levels of output losses. Significant private investment in newpower infrastructure is unlikely, at least in the short- to medium term, as political uncertainty and a historyof state appropriation of assets will continue to deter potential investors. At the same time public spendingon infrastructure improvements is undermined by macroeconomic uncertainty and falling revenues from oilreserves. There are a slim number of projects currently progressing through the pipeline which will add tototal electricity generated over the forecast period. However we caution that projects have historically beensubject to delays which may lead to a downwards revision of current figures.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Political uncertainty remains a fundamental deterrent to potential private sector investors in theVenezuelan power sector. The current president, Nicolás Maduro, is considered unlikely to be able to seeout his full term in office as political opposition is high and social unrest caused by goods shortages,soaring inflation and elevated violence is rising.

- Power outages have been frequent since the start of 2016 and in March the government announced it wasextending national holidays and reducing the working hours of government employees in an attempt toreduce consumption and lower the burden on the power network.

- Falling water levels in dams feeding major hydroelectric plants, including the vital Guri reservoir, as wellas the shutdown of facilities for maintenance mean we revised our short-term forecasts for total electricitygeneration in Venezuela in 2016 and now expect to see a contraction of 0.66% in output to 117.32TWh,exacerbating existing power shortages.

- More positive growth is expected over the remainder of the forecast period as new hydropower capacitycomes online and some renewable projects progress, including wind power which offers significantgrowth potential. By 2025 total generation is currently forecast to reach 154.30TWh.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Venezuela 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Venezuela Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Venezuela 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data (Venezuela 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Venezuela Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation And Capacity Forecast 13
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 15
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 17
Total Electricity Generation And Capacity Forecasts 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 20
Electricity Consumption 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 22
Transmission And Distribution 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2014-2019) 24
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Venezuela 2020-2025) 24
Industry Risk/Reward Index 25
Latin America - LatAm RRI: Argentina Gaining Amid Chile's Continued Outperformance 25
Table: Latin America Power Risk/Reward Index (Scores Out Of 100) 31
Venezuela Power Risk/Reward Index 32
Rewards 32
Risks 33
Market Overview 34
Key Policies And Market Structure 34
Regulation And Competition 34
Pricing 34
Venezuela Power Projects Database 35
Table: Venezuela - Top 10 Projects By Capacity Type (MW) 36
Competitive Landscape 38
Corpoelec 38
Edelca 39
EDC 39
Regional Overview 40
Latin America - LatAm Power: Key Regional Themes 40
Table: BMI's Key Themes For Latin America's Power Industry In 2016 And Beyond 45
Glossary 46
Table: Glossary Of Terms 46
Methodology 47
Methodology And Sources 47
Industry Forecast Methodology 47
Sources 50
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 51
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 52

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