South Africa Autos Industry Update Quarter 3 2011

• Publication date: August 2012
• Report size: 69 pages

The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) reported that vehicle revenues in April were up 8% y-o-y, to 38,566 units. Overall figures for the first four months of the year registered a y-o-y increase of 19% and indicate that the South African auto segment is on target to reach BMI’s optimistic projection for revenues growth in 2011 of 21% to reach revenues of 509,834 units. BMI believes rising revenues in pass...

The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) reported that vehicle revenues in April were up 8% y-o-y, to 38,566 units. Overall figures for the first four months of the year registered a y-o-y increase of 19% and indicate that the South African auto segment is on target to reach BMI’s optimistic projection for revenues growth in 2011 of 21% to reach revenues of 509,834 units. BMI believes rising revenues in passenger cars, which were up 12%, results from renewed and growing confidence in the economy by South Africans and the resulting increase of discretionary consumer spending will have a positive effect on the domestic industry for motor vehicles in the country. Equally reassuring for the market was the monthly y-o-y rise in vehicle exports of 12.7%, and in June NAAMSA predicted that exports would triple in the next 10 years. BMI believe that exports will be the major driver of the development of the market in the future. The South African government’s Automotive Production Development Programme (APDP) is intended to establish the country as a major regional automotive hub and to attract the investment of international automotive industry players looking to take advantage of an African industry that is growing with the development of continental economies. BMI believes that the current growth in exports is as a result of industry players gearing up for the start of the APDP in 2013 and ensuring that they reach the production threshold minimum of 50,000 vehicles annually set by the South African government.
The APDP has certainly got the attention of international firms . As a direct result of receiving assurance that the industry player would qualify for the export incentives on offer, BMW has increased investment in its Rosslyn production facility in Gauteng to the tune of ZAR2.2bn (US Dollar 296mn), which will increase the annual production capacity from 60,000 to 87,000 vehicles. The APDP will result in a rise in investment, jobs and skills in South Africa and is likely to turn result in the country becoming a regional powerhouse in auto production. BMI projections that production will increase by 9.8% this year, to 520,325 units. We believe that production will continue to grow around 10% a year until the end of our projection period in 2015 when we expect output will reach 762,883 units.
Despite our general optimism for the South African auto segment, BMI believes there is a possibility that production growth this year could be negatively impacted by the knock-on effects of the earthquake and tsnami that hit Japan in March this year. The disaster has had a significant impact on the production capacity and operational performance of both Toyota Motor and Nissan Motor and crucially their component suppliers. The effects of the disaster has also disrupted the efficient, well established lines of supply and the fear is that assembly plants in South Africa may not be able to receive the key components to allow vehicles move off the production line. Currently, both firms ’ South African units are operating normally but the situation is being anxiously monitored.

Passenger Car Industry in South Africa

Executive Summary 5
Industry SWOT Analysis 6
South Africa Auto Industry Environment and Risk Analysis 6
South Africa Political Environment and Risk Analysis 7
South Africa Economic Environment and Risk Analysis 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT . 9
World Overview 10
BMI's Core Views For The Automotives Market . 10
Regional Overview 15
Trade Data Confirms Regional Potential for Suppliers . 15

Environment Overview Ratings 16
Data : Middle East And Africa Business Environment Ratings. 18

Market Projection Scenario . 19
Data : South Africa Auto Segment – Historical Data And Projections 19
Production And Sales . 21
Exports 26
Data : South Africa Auto – Exports/Imports . 26
Macroeconomic Projection 28
South Africa – Economic Activity . 30

Competitive Landscape 31
Commercial Vehicles 34
Alternative Fuel Technologies 38
Government Regulation And Policy 42
Company Monitor SUV Demand Drives Chevrolet's Regional Growth 43
Company Profiles 45
Toyota South Africa 45
FAW South Africa . 47
Mercedes-Benz South Africa . 48
MAN Truck And Bus (South Africa) 49
Volkswagen South Africa (VWSA). 50
General Motors South Africa (GMSA) 52
Nissan South Africa 54
Ford Motor South Africa 55
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data . 57

Section I : Population 57
Data : Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 57
Data : Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 58

Section II : Education And Healthcare . 58
Data : Education, from 2002 to 2005 . 58
Data : Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 58

Section III : Labour Industry And Spending Power . 59
Data : Employment Indicators, from 2001 to 2006 . 59
Data : Consumer Expenditure, from 2000 to 2012 (US$) . 59
Data : Average Annual Wages, from 2000 to 2012 . 60
BMI Methodology 61
How We Generate Our Projection ing Model . 61
Sources . 62

Passenger Car in South Africa

South Africa Vehicle Sales, Units

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2006 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: Automotive News Europe, NAAMSA, BMI estimates

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : South Africa

South Africa Vehicle Sales, Units, Mn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2006 To 2016
By Business Monitor International
Source: NAAMSA

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : South Africa

South Africa Passenger Car Sales, Units, Mn

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2006 To 2015
By Business Monitor International
Source: NAAMSA

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : South Africa

South Africa Passenger Car Sales, Units, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2007 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: NAAMSA

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : South Africa

South Africa Vehicle Sales, Units, % Chg Y-o-y

• $ 250
• Industry data
• February 2013

Yearly, From 2007 To 2017
By Business Monitor International
Source: NAAMSA

• Industries : Passenger Car
• Countries : South Africa