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  4. > South Africa Power Report Q3 2016

South Africa Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 74 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Non-hydropower renewable electricity generation will experience the highest growth in SouthAfrica's power sector at an annual average of 12.5% over our 10-year forecast period to 2025. Despite newconventional plants facing delays and financing problems, coal-fired power will remain the main source ofgeneration due to the abundance of coal available. Risk of load shedding in 2016 is lessened due to units atthe Ingula hydroelectric plant being synchronised to the grid.Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We have revised our forecasts for when we expect the additional units of the 4.8GW Kusile and 4.76GWMedupi coal-fired power plants will come online. We now expect that the next units of both the powerplants will only come online in 2018 and accordingly forecast that Medupi and Kusile will be completeby 2022 and 2023 respectively.

- South Africa's Department of Energy (DoE) has stated that it is planning to procure a 600MW gas-firedpower plant. The project is intended to be a public-private partnership (PPP) and the DoE will be utilisingit to test the viability and appetite for g

as-to-power projects in South Africa.

- The South African government has stated that it will seek to achieve a 50% level of local content in itsproposed nuclear power plant (NPP) programme.

- Eskom has reported that the Ingula Hydroelectric Plant has been fully connected to the national grid. Theplant is expected to be fully operational by 2017 and one of the four units is already operational, adding333MW to the grid.

- Ingula's Unit 3 was damaged in April during an optimisation procedure. This will not affect our forecasts,however, as Unit 4 is currently commercially operational while Unit 2 has been synchronised to the gridand is undergoing optimisation. Eskom has stated that it does not expect this to affect the hydroelectricplant's projected date of commercial operation in 2017.

- Engie has secured a total of USD588mn in loans for the construction of the 100MW concentrated solarpower (CSP) plant in Kathu. The plant will utilise molten-salt storage technology which will provide upto 4.5 hours of energy storage. Engie expects the plant to be operational by the end of 2018.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (South Africa 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
South Africa Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2014-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (South Africa 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
South Africa Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Thermal Generation and Thermal Generating Capacity 13
Nuclear Generation And Nuclear Generating Capacity 17
Table: South Africa: Nuclear Reactors 18
Hydropower Generation And Hydropower Generating Capacity 19
Renewables Generation And Renewables Generating Capacity 20
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 23
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 27
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (South Africa 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk/Reward Index 30
Sub-Saharan Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 30
Table: SSA Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 36
South Africa Power Risk/Reward Index 37
Rewards 37
Risks 37
Market Overview 39
Key Policies And Market Structure 39
Regulation And Competition 39
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 42
Key Policies And Market Structure 43
South Africa Power Projects Database 46
Competitive Landscape 49
Competitive Landscape 49
Company Profile 54
Eskom 54
Regional Overview 60
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 60
Glossary 68
Table: Glossary Of Terms 68
Methodology 69
Methodology And Sources 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Sources 72
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 74

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