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  5. > Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 137 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Our growth outlook for Canada's oil and gas industry remains modest given mountingheadwinds in both the upstream and midstream sectors within a low commodity price environment. Thegreatest threats are unfavourable project economics and regulatory headwinds that will hamper the growthof oil sands-driven production beyond 2018, much-needed midstream expansions and LNG terminaldevelopment. This is exacerbated by the likely drop in exploratory activity throughout Canadian acreage ascompanies reduce capital expenditures.Key developments in Canada's oil and gas sector are:

- We have slightly downgraded our 2016 Canadian crude production forecast to account forunplanned outages in Q216. The wildfires which surrounded Fort McMurray pose a limited threat to thesector's continued growth through 2018 owing to a strong upstream project pipeline.

- We are reaffirmed in our negative outlook on long-term crude production growth in Canada followinggiven sustained weakness of commodity prices. This, combined with insufficient pipeline takeawaycapacity, will join with the government's stronger environmental mandate to undermine proposedupstream and midstream developments.

- Prime Minister Trudeau and the Albertan government's financial commitments will strengthen supportfor midstream projects in the province to service existing oil sands operations. However, under its newleadership, Alberta will boost its environmental mandate, undermining pre-FID upstream developments.

- The proposed 50,000b/d expansion of Imperial Oil's Cold Lake bitumen project in March represents aunique opportunity for a more financially stable company to explore more efficient production methods.The extended life-time of this brownfield project supports its development but does not indicate a broaderexpansion of Canadian upstream capacity beyond 2017.

Table Of Contents

Canada Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Canada 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Shale Resources-In-Place, Alberta 15
Upstream Projects 17
Table: Canada - Key Upstream Projects 17
Upstream Production - Oil 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Oil Sands Commercial Breakeven Costs, USD/BBL 33
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2014-2019) 36
Table: Oil Production (Canada 2020-2025) 36
Upstream Production - Gas 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends 37
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2014-2019) 41
Table: Gas Production (Canada 2020-2025) 41
Refining 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2014-2019) 45
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Canada 2020-2025) 45
Refined Fuels Consumption 46
Latest Trends 46
Structural Trends 46
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 48
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 48
Gas Consumption 49
Latest Updates 49
Structural Trends 49
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2014-2019) 52
Table: Gas Consumption (Canada 2020-2025) 52
Trade - Oil 53
Crude Oil 53
Latest Updates 53
Structural Trends 53
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2014-2020) 57
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 57
Refined Fuels 57
Latest Updates 57
Structural Trends 57
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 59
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 59
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG) 60
Latest Updates 60
Structural Trends 60
Table: Canadian Key LNG Export Projects 63
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2014-2019) 64
Table: Gas Net Exports (Canada 2020-2025) 65
Industry Risk/Reward Index 66
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 66
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 66
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead 67
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price 67
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe 68
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 70
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 70
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index 72
Canada - Risk/Reward Index 73
Upstream Index 73
Downstream Index 74
Market Overview 75
Canada Energy Market Overview 75
State Role 76
Licensing And Regulation 77
Table: Generic Offshore Petroleum Royalty Regime 81
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 84
Oil Refineries 84
Table: Downstream Projects 84
Service Stations 88
Oil Pipelines 88
LNG Regasification Terminals 94
LNG Liquefaction Terminals 95
Gas Pipelines 102
Gas Service Stations 104
Competitive Landscape 105
Competitive Landscape Summary 105
Table: Key Players - Oil And Gas Sector 107
Table: Key Upstream Players 107
Table: Key Downstream Players 108
Company Profile 109
Suncor 109
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 110
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 111
Encana 112
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 113
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 113
Imperial Oil 115
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets In Canada 116
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics, USDmn 116
Regional Overview 117
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 117
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 127
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 128
Glossary 130
Table: Glossary Of Terms 130
Methodology 132
Industry Forecast Methodology 132
Source 134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 134
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 136
Table: Weighting 137

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