Turkey Power Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

Turkey Power Industry Update Quarter 3 2012 Add to your bookmarks!

$ 1 088 - May 2013 - by Business Monitor International - 59

Summary

Table of Contents

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Data Series

Industry

Electric Power Energy

Country

Europe
Turkey

Keywords

Electric Power
Electricity Generation

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BMI View: Our view on Turkey remains largely unchanged this quarter, with a number of developments
across segment reinforcing our optimistic outlook for the power industry's growth potential. Despite the fact
that several of Turkey's economic challenges - including a significant current account deficit, high cost of
credit and high reliance on short-term capital flows to finance the current account deficit - constitute
pertinent downside risks, rewards on offer remain highly appealing, particularly when regional prospects
are factored in. Recent dynamics have highlighted that a solution to existing energy-related imbalances is
cardinal for the country's wider economy, making reforms and new investments in the power sector a top
priority for the country.
BMI's view for a sharp decline in economic activity in 2012, owing to both domestic and external factors
played out, and our Country Risk analysts now expect domestic demand to stage a modest recovery in 2013
and 2014. With relatively healthy budget and debt dynamics, the government is in a position to provide a
more pronounced fiscal boost to the economy if needed, although we expect fiscal discipline to remain high
up on the government's agenda, with monetary policy playing a more active role in boosting growth. This
picture corroborates our long-held relatively bullish Turkish power market outlook; which had been already
reinforced by regional- and country-specific sector dynamics over previous months. When compared to
other power markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), Turkey emerges as the clear outperformer as
macroeconomic and demographic fundamentals support a positive outlook for power consumption, and thus
generation. With our forecasts showing an average y-o-y growth of 6.44% in power consumption between
2013 and 2022, substantial investment in new generating capacity will be indispensable, suggesting that
rewards on offer in the Turkish market will outweigh the risks. Thus, attracting significant attention not
only from traditional European players, but also from an array of newly emerging companies looking to use
Turkey as a springboard to penetrate nearby markets and/or display their ability to develop big ticket
projects.

BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Turkey Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Turkey Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 12
Table: Turkey Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 13
Table: Turkey Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 15
Table: Turkey Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 16
Electricity Consumption 25
Table: Turkey Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 25
Table: Turkey Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 25
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 26
Table: Turkey Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016 26
Table: Turkey Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022 27
Table: Turkey Trade Data And Forecasts 27
Table: Turkey Trade Long-Term Forecasts 27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100) 34
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Rewards 35
Risks 35
Market Overview 37
Key Policies And Market Structure 37
Regulation and Competition 37
Sustainable Energy Policies 38
Pricing 40
Turkey Power Projects Database 41
Table: Major Projects - Power 41
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Domestic Players 45
Regional Overview 46
Central and Eastern Europe Regional Overview 46
Glossary 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Methodology 53
Methodology And Sources 53
Industry Forecasts 53
Power Industry - Data Methodology 54
Generation and Consumption Data 54
Electricity Generating Capacity Data 55
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 56
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 58
Sources 59

Electricity Generation in Europe