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Turkey Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 60 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter our core assumptions for the sector remain largely unchanged. We continue toexpect Turkey to remain the most attractive power market in the CEE region this quarter and foresee powerdemand in Turkey to be robust over the next decade, given the high levels of investment being channelledinto its power sector, the country's capacity expansion plans and its improving economic outlook. There isalso considerable political backing for power sector expansion as the government continues to strive forgreater energy security and to lower the country's heavy reliance on imports of natural gas throughexpanding domestic capacity - with renewables and domestically sourced coal leading the way. Yet, whilethe outlook is bright, the development of Turkey's power sector is complicated by the county's precariouseconomic and political position.

Key Trends And Developments

- We expect thermal generation to dominate the electricity generation mix to the end of our forecast period.While coal- and gas-fired will grow in absolute terms, we expect both to lose their share of generation tohydropower and non-renewables (and potentially nuclear). By 2025 we expect gas to account for 40.14%of total electricity generation (as opposed to 45.78% in 2015), coal to account for 24.76%, hydropower toaccount for 18.77% and non-hydro renewables to generate 11.70% of all electricity.

- Natural gas will remain the predominant source of electricity in the Turkish power mix over our 10-yearforecast period to 2025. The renegotiation of contracts to offset lira weakness - with contractsdenominated in USD - and additional imports coming, highlight the fuel's continued importance in themix. This view is strengthened by the fact there is significant gas infrastructure already in place - bothpipeline interconnections and generation capacity - and the fall in gas prices, which in Turkey's case areclosely indexed to the oil price.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Turkey 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Turkey Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Turkey 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Turkey Power Forecast Scenario 12
Privatisation Process Gaining Traction 13
A Combustible Mix 14
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 14
Coal Generation And Capacity Forecast 16
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecast 19
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecast 20
Renewables Generation And Capacity Forecast 22
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 24
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 25
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 25
Electricity Consumption 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 26
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 27
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 27
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 28
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Turkey 2020-2025) 28
Industry Risk/Reward Index 29
CEE Power Risk/Reward Index 29
Table: CEE Risk/Reward Index 35
Turkey Power Risk/Reward Index 36
Rewards 36
Risks 36
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Sustainable Energy Policies 40
Pricing 42
Turkey Power Projects Database 43
Table: Major Projects - Power 43
Competitive Landscape 45
Regional Overview 47
CEE Power Regional Overview 47
Glossary 54
Table: Glossary Of Terms 54
Methodology 55
Methodology And Sources 55
Industry Forecast Methodology 55
Sources 58
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 58
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 60

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