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  5. > Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slovakia has above-average energy import dependency compared with the regional average.The country remains reliant on Russia, but is actively pushing through several projects aimed at improvingbi-directional flows and establishing regional links for a regional gas market in Central and South EastEurope.

Key Trends And Developments

- Slovakia is almost entirely dependent on Russian oil and gas imports for its domestic consumption, with atotal hydrocarbon import bill estimated at USD1.9bn in 2015, a strong decline on 2014 thanks to the fallin oil and gas prices. There is little prospect for an increase in oil or gas production.

- While we expect the 130,000b/d Bratislava refinery will continue to run at high utilisation rates,downside risk to refined fuels production exists, given the difficult context for European refiners as awhole. However, the refinery's focus on diesel production could partially shield it from the negativeeffect of increased gasoline production in the US. The country will remain a small net refined fuelsexporter throughout our forecast period.

- Gas consumption in Slovakia will stagnate, with a residential gas market close to saturation and noexpansion planned in the already limited gas-fired power generation capacity.

- Slovakia's refined fuels consumption will increase at a stable 1.5-2% y-o-y in the medium term, broadlyin line with underlying GDP growth forecast and pulled up by the increasing vehicle fleet in the country.We have slightly revised down our oil consumption forecast on the basis of lower forecast vehicle fleetgrowth. Economic activity and GDP growth however is set to remain strong over the forecast periodaccording to our Country Risk Team, providing some support to refined fuels consumption despite aslowing vehicle fleet size growth.

- Ukraine signed a gas supply purchase agreement with Slovakia in early 2014. The deal allows Kiev tobuy natural gas on the European spot market and annually import at least 10bcm of gas through Slovakia.

Table Of Contents

Slovakia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Slovakia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Upstream Production - Oil 11
Table: Oil Production (Slovakia 2014-2019) 12
Table: Oil Production (Slovakia 2020-2025) 12
Upstream Production - Gas 13
Table: Gas Production (Slovakia 2014-2019) 14
Table: Gas Production (Slovakia 2020-2025) 14
Refining 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends 15
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovakia 2014-2019) 17
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Slovakia 2020-2025) 17
Refined Fuels Consumption 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Slovakia 2014-2019) 20
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Slovakia 2020-2025) 20
Gas Consumption 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovakia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovakia 2020-2025) 22
Trade - Oil 23
Crude Oil Trade Forecast 23
Latest Updates 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025) 25
Refined Products Trade Forecast 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019) 26
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025) 27
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovakia 2014-2019) 30
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovakia 2020-2025) 31
Industry Risk Reward Index 32
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 32
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 32
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 33
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 33
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 35
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 36
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 38
Slovakia - Risk/Reward Index 40
Slovakia Upstream Index - Rewards 40
Slovakia Upstream Index - Risks 40
Slovakia Downstream Index - Overview 40
Market Overview 42
Slovakia Energy Market Overview 42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 43
Oil Refineries 43
Table: Refineries In Slovakia 43
Service Stations 44
Oil Storage Facilities 44
Oil Pipelines 44
Gas Storage Facilities 46
Gas Pipelines 46
Competitive Landscape 48
Competitive Landscape Summary 48
Table: Key Players - Slovak Oil And Gas Sector 49
Table: Key Downstream Players 49
Regional Overview 50
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 50
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 50
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 51
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 52
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 53
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 54
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 55
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 56
Glossary 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
Methodology 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Source 62
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 62
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 64
Table: Weighting 65

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