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Efforts to slow the decline rate of Norway's oil output are beginning to pay off, with the country
registering a drop of 5.1% in 2013 over 2012. Despite this being less than previous years, Norway still registered its 12th consecutive year of oil decline. The gas outlook offers more stability with production expected to stabilise at over 100bn cubic metres (bcm) a year over the forecast. The country's excellent operating environment, combined with strong prospectivity in both mature and frontier basin areas are sustaining interest in the hydrocarbon sector. This is expected to drive a return to oil production growth by
2019. However, we note that growing industry costs, combined with limited incentives to develop marginal fields and improve recovery rates, could hinder investment and production growth over our forecast.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Norway's oil and gas sector are:
- Gas demand from Norway's largest European markets has fallen due to unfavourable gas-fired power generation economics and warm weather, leading Norway to produce less gas in 2013.
- Gas production for 2014 is expected to come in slightly lower than in 2013 with estimated production of 106.6bn cubic metres (bcm).
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