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Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

  • May 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 36 pages

Core Views

Cameroon's President Paul Biya is the world's longest-serving national leader, and his time in office will almost certainly come to a close within the next decade. We provide an analysis of how a post-Biya transition might unfold, arguing that an internal power struggle within the ruling party would be likely. Higher oil production and rising investment spending will cause real GDP growth in Cameroon to accelerate to 5.1% in 2014. While the economy's performance is improving, we believe that the government's
target of 6.0% annual growth is unreasonably optimistic. Restrained revenue growth and high government spending will cause Cameroon's fiscal balance to deteriorate over the coming years. We expect the country's budget deficit to widen from 4.2% of GDP in 2014 to 4.5% in 2015.

The BEAC will likely hold its key interest rate at 3.25% over the coming quarter, with policymakers hoping that recent cuts will stimulate local economies. Poorly developed transmission mechanisms, however, make a significant monetary stimulus unlikely. Oil exports will increase between 2014 and 2017, contributing to a stable current account deficit, but depleting reserves point to a deteriorating trade account position over the longer term. We expect import demand to remain high.

Table Of Contents

Cameroon Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
Executive Summary . 5
Core Views 5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook 7
SWOT Analysis .. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings .. 7
Domestic Politics . 8
Imagining A Post-Biya Cameroon ..8
Cameroon's President Paul Biya is the world's longest-serving national leader, and his time in office will almost certainly come to a close
within the next decade. We provide an analysis of how a post-Biya transition might unfold, arguing that an internal power struggle within
the ruling party would be likely.
Table: Political Overview .8
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook . 11
SWOT Analysis 11
BMI Economic Risk Ratings 11
Economic Activity 12
Growth Ticking Up .12
Higher oil production and rising investment spending will cause real GDP growth in Cameroon to accelerate to 5.1% in 2014. While the
economy's performance is improving, we believe that the government's target of 6.0% annual growth is unreasonably optimistic.
table: GDP By Expenditure 12
Fiscal Policy .. 15
Fiscal Health Will Gradually Deteriorate .15
Restrained revenue growth and high government spending will cause Cameroon's fiscal balance to deteriorate over the coming years.
We expect the country's budget deficit to widen from 4.2% of GDP in 2014 to 4.5% in 2015.
table: Fiscal Policy ..15
Monetary Policy . 17
CEMAC Monetary Policy To Have Little Effect 17
The XAF franczone will likely hold its key interest rate at 3.25% over the coming quarter, with policymakers hoping that recent cuts will
stimulate local economies. Poorly developed transmission mechanisms, however, make a significant monetary stimulus unlikely.
table: Monetary Policy ..17
Balance Of Payments . 20
Short-Term Stability, Oil Weighs On Long-Term prospects 20
Oil exports will increase between 2014 and 2017, contributing to a stable current account deficit, but depleting reserves point to a
deteriorating trade account position over the longer term. We expect import demand to remain high.
table: Current Account ..20
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast . 23
The Cameroon Economy To 2023 23
Reaching A Higher Growth Equilibrium ..23
Over the next ten years we see Cameroon's growth exceeding long-run levels, with many of the gains front-loaded on the back of
increased investment. A weak business environment and poor governance have long held down growth, however, and we expect them
to continue to constrain economic expansion over the decade to come.
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts .23
Chapter 4: Business Environment 27
SWOT Analysis 27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings .. 27
Business Environment Outlook 28
Institutions . 28
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS 28
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING .29
Infrastructure 30
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS 30
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING .31
Market Orientation . 32
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS 32
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2004-2011, USDmn .33
Operational Risk . 34
Chapter 5: BMI Global Assumptions .. 35
Global Outlook . 35
Growth Increasingly Polarised ..35
Table: Global Assumptions ..35
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, % 36
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % .. 36
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, % ..37

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