1. Market Research
  2. > Aerospace and Defence Market Trends
  3. > Thailand Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

Thailand Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 47 pages

Core Views

The Thai military's assumption of power following failed talks between rival factions in the ongoing political crisis raises the prospect of an unelected government being installed. Such a move would risk a violent pro-government backlash, and we maintain our view that the path of least resistance is for escalating violent unrest.
Thailand's economy is feeling the strain of the ongoing political turmoil, with real GDP growth contracting by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q114, and it is difficult to see a quick recovery given our view that there is no end in sight to the crisis. The manufacturing and construction sectors are coming under pressure, while outperformance
on the external front looks like it's here to stay. The military's new budget proposal should help the Thai economy recover from its current stagnation. Measures such as freeing up funds for infrastructure projects and making overdue payments to rice farmers should rebuild consumer and investor confidence, while the fiscal accounts are unlikely to deteriorate significantly.

Inflationary pressures are likely to be muted over the coming months in spite of the negative real interest rate environment, as weak demand for credit amid high household debt and political uncertainty undermine money supply growth. We expect the Bank of Thailand to hold its benchmark repurchase rate at 2.00% for the remainder of 2014, before hiking by 50 basis points in 2015. Thailand's export outlook has darkened considerably since the onset of the political crisis, and shipments may fall further before
they recover in line with the collapse seen in imports. Efforts by the military junta to restore short-term economic confidence are likely to prevent an outright export contraction, however, which should support a strong recovery in the trade and current account balances.


Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our current account forecast for 2014 to 0.8% of GDP from -0.4% of GDP previously, which would mark the first surplus since 2011. This reflects our expectation for the domestic savings rate to rise while exports outperform domestic demand. We still export exports to barely grow in 2014, with the increase in the
surplus coming from falling imports.

Table Of Contents

Thailand Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics . 8
Military Coup Raises Civil War Threat..8
The Thai military's assumption of power following failed talks between rival factions in the ongoing political crisis raises the prospect of
an unelected government being installed. Such a move would risk a violent pro-government backlash, and we maintain our view that the
path of least resistance is for escalating violent unrest.
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Thailand's political situation will remain highly volatile, and it is difficult to envision political stability over the next few years. Following the
recent coup in May, the roadmap to a return to civilian government is unclear, and we expect the political situation to remain very volatile
over the coming years.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings... 13
Economic Activity .. 14
Economic Resilience Fading Fast..14
Thailand's economy is feeling the strain of the ongoing political turmoil, with real GDP growth contracting by 2.1% q-o-q in Q114, and it
is difficult to see a quick recovery given our view that there is no end in sight to the crisis. The manufacturing and construction sectors
are coming under pressure, while outperformance on the external front looks like it's here to stay.
Table: Macroeconomic Forecasts...14
Fiscal Policy 16
New Budget To Provide Economic Boost..16
The military's new budget proposal should help the Thai economy recover from its current stagnation. Measures such as freeing up
funds for infrastructure projects and making overdue payments to rice farmers should rebuild consumer and investor confidence, while
the fiscal accounts are unlikely to deteriorate significantly.
Table: Fiscal Policy16
Monetary Policy .. 17
Inflation Risks Evenly Balanced.17
Inflationary pressures are likely to be muted over the coming months in spite of the negative real interest rate environment, as weak
demand for credit amid high household debt and political uncertainty undermine money supply growth. We expect the Bank of Thailand
to hold its benchmark repurchase rate at 2.00% for the remainder of 2014, before hiking by 50 basis points in 2015.
Table: Monetary Policy17
Balance Of Payments . 18
Exports To Muddle Through As Surplus Rises..18
Thailand's export outlook has darkened considerably since the onset of the political crisis, and shipments may fall further before
they recover in line with the collapse seen in imports. Efforts by the military junta to restore short-term economic confidence are
likely to prevent an outright export contraction, however, which should support a strong recovery in the trade and current account
balances.
Table: Current Account...19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast... 21
The Thai Economy To 2023 21
Politics A Headwind, But Won't Prevent Solid Growth..21
Ongoing political uncertainty, deteriorating demographic trends, and a lack of reform momentum are likely to undermine Thailand's real
GDP growth over the next decade, although we still believe that solid growth rates are achievable assuming no major deterioration on
the political front. We now project the economy to average 3.9% real GDP growth over the next decade, versus our previous projection
of 4.1%, and the average rate of 4.5% seen over the past decade.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
Chapter 4: Business Environment. 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 25
Business Environment Outlook. 26
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings26
Institutions... 27
Table: BMI Leg al Framewo rk Rati ng 27
Table: Labou r Force Qualit y .28
TABLE: ASIA - ANN UAL FDI INFLOWS29
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings 30
Infrastructure... 31
Market Orientation... 32
TABLE: Top Export Destinations, 2002-2009 (USDmn) 32
Operational Risk . 33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 35
Defence 35
Table: Government Defence Expenditure, 2014-2018..36
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare... 39
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts ...41
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts 42
Other Key Sectors... 43
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators.43
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators43
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators...43
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators.44
Table: Freight Key Indicators44
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators...44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 45
Global Outlook. 45
Emerging Market Deceleration45
Table: Global Assumptions.45
Table: Developed States , Re al GDP Growt H, %...46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 46
Table: Eme rgi ng Markets , Re al GDP Growth , %..47

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024

Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)

Summary Strategic Defense Intelligence in its report "Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024" provides quantitative top-level view of projected spends on CBRN. According to Strategic Defense Intelligence, ...

Thermal Imaging Market by Component, Application, End User, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Thermal Imaging Market by Component, Application, End User, and Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 7 150
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Decline in the prices of thermal cameras and surging demand for thermal cameras in smartphones and all commercial applications are driving the thermal imaging market” The global thermal imaging market ...

Middle East and North Africa Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024

Middle East and North Africa Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024

  • $ 7 499
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)

Summary Strategic Defense Intelligence in its report "Middle East and North Africa Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024" provides quantitative top-level view of projected spends on ...


ref:plp2014

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.