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Namibia Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 39 pages

Core Views

Economic growth in Namibia will quicken in 2014, increasing by 4.5% in real terms, owing to a buoyant, credit-fuelled consumer segment and robust public investment. The impact of weak global demand on the country's mining sector will continue to be felt. We expect the ruling SWAPO to secure a comfortable victory in November's general elections, with the party likely to maintain its broadly pro-business economic agenda in the years ahead. A weak and under-funded opposition will preclude anything other than a minor swing away from the ruling party. Our broad outlook for Namibia's current account over the next few years remains relatively unchanged. We maintain that the country will sustain a sizeable current account shortfall over our 2014-2018 forecast period as demand for imports associated with new mining projects more than offsets a sluggish recovery in demand for key mineral exports.


Major Forecast Changes

N o major forecast changes

Table Of Contents

Namibia Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics . 8
Status Quo To Be Maintained In November Elections.8
We expect the ruling SWAPO to secure a comfortable victory in November's general elections, with the party likely to maintain its
broadly pro-business economic agenda in the years ahead. A weak and under-funded opposition will preclude anything other than a
minor swing away from the ruling party.
Table: Political Overview .8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
Stability Likely To Prevail Over The Coming Decade..9
While Namibia's enormous income inequality poses some risks to political stability, we believe the population is likely to continue
supporting the South West Africa People's Organization (SWAPO) government for the next 10 years, ensuring broad political stability
and continuity.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings... 13
Economic Activity .. 14
Consumers And Public Spending To Power Growth in 201414
Economic growth in Namibia will quicken in 2014, increasing by 4.5% in real terms, owing to a buoyant, credit-fuelled consumer
segment and robust public investment. The impact of weak global demand on the country's mining sector will continue to be felt.
Table: Economic Activity..14
Balance Of Payments . 16
Current Account Deficit To Remain Sizeable But Under Control.16
Namibia will sustain a sizeable current account shortfall over the duration of our 2014-2018 forecast period as growth in mining sectorrelated
imports more than offsets a gradual recovery in demand for Namibian mineral exports.
Table: Current Account...16
Monetary Policy .. 17
Rates To Remain Steady In 201417
The Bank of Namibia's decision in April to keep the repo rate steady at 5.50% is in line with our view that interest rates are likely to
remain at, or near, their current low levels through 2014. Risks, however, are weighted in favour of a rate hike given the likelihood that
the South African Reserve Bank will hike its policy rate in H214.
Fiscal Policy 18
Fiscal Consolidation Delayed Until 2015 At Least.18
Fiscal policy in Namibia in FY2014/15 will remain firmly expansionary owing to a hike in public sector wages that will prove politically
popular ahead of elections in November. We predict that the fiscal balance will deteriorate from an estimated 6.0% of GDP in
FY2012/13 to 6.3% in FY2014/15.
Table: Monetary Policy18
Table: Fiscal Policy19
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast... 21
The Namibian Economy To 2023... 21
Resource Powered Growth.21
Thanks to the country's strong primary sector, we expect growth to prove relatively robust in the long run, averaging around 4.5
%annually over 2014 to 2023. With a stable political environment, the main risks are the limited size of the domestic market, rising income
inequality and global demand for the country's primary exports.
Table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts21
Chapter 4: Business Environment. 23
SWOT Analysis 23
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 23
Business Environment Outlook. 24
Institutions . 24
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS24
Table: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING.25
Table: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY..26
TABLE: ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS27
Table: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS.28
Market Orientation... 29
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 31
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare... 31
Table : Healthcare Expenditure Trends , Historical Data And Forecasts 32
Table : Phar maceutical Sales , Historical Data And Forecasts (Namibia 2010-2018) 32
Other Key Sectors... 35
Table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators35
Table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators...35
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators..35
Table: Autos Sector Key Indicators...36
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 37
Global Outlook. 37
Emerging Market Deceleration37
Table: Global Assumptions.37
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, %...38
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %. 38
Table : Emerging Mar kets , Real GDP Growth , %..39

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