1. Market Research
  2. > Energy & Environment
  3. > Energy
  4. > Oil and Gas Energy Market Trends
  5. > Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

  • April 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 56 pages

Core Views

Oman's economic performance will remain robust over the coming quarters, on the back of healthy growth in oil and gas production and expanding non-hydrocarbon business activity. High public spending and a promising fixed investment picture should further support economic growth in 2014. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2014, moderating slightly from an estimated 4.7% in 2013. We continue to expect limited inflationary pressures in Oman over the coming quarters, and forecast average consumer price inflation of 2.1% over 2014, from 1.2% in 2013.

Oman's fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly precarious, and we project a budget deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2014, widening to 5.0% of GDP by 2017. Fiscal reform will need to be accelerated in our view, either through curbs to subsidies and military expenditure, or the establishment of new non-hydrocarbon revenue streams.
Core Views

Yemen's political crisis remains in full swing. Although the national reconciliation conference decided that Yemen will become a federal state, we remain pessimistic about the prospects for political stability over the coming quarters. The economic outlook is modestly improving, with real GDP growth set to increase by 3.6% in 2014, compared to our estimate of 2.5% growth in 2013, largely as a result of low base effects. Our core scenario sees business activity continuing to be negatively impacted by civil unrest, while persistent attacks on the country's hydrocarbon infrastructure will weigh on exports.
The federalist solution will provide different tribal groups with a greater say over policy. Hydrocarbon revenue-sharing will most likely be a central feature in any future state.

Table Of Contents

Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
Executive Summary - Oman 11
Middle East - Ratings League Tables 9
Core Views 11
Key Risk To Outlook 11
Chapter 1.1: Political Outlook - Oman 13
SWOT Analysis 13
Foreign Policy 14
Well Positioned To Benefit From Iranian Overture 14
Oman is one of the best placed countries to benefit from improvements in Iran's relations with the West, and we anticipate immediate
gains in trade and investment inflows.
TABLE: Political Overview 14
TABLE: OMAN and IRAn - INCREASING ECONOMIC COPERATION 15
Long-Term Political Outlook 16
Royal Succession: Who Is Next In Line? 16
Royal succession is the major question regarding Oman's political future, although demographic change and regional instability also
pose challenges.
Chapter 1.2: Economic Outlook - Oman 19
SWOT Analysis 19
Economic Activity 20
Economic Outlook Remains Bright 20
Our outlook on Oman's economy remains positive, and we retain our forecasts for real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2014 and 2015, from an
estimated 4.7% in 2013.
TABLE: GDP BY EXPENDITURE 20
Fiscal Policy 23
Consistent Fiscal Deficits Ahead 23
We expect Oman's budget balance to remain in deficit over the rest of the decade, and forecast a shortfall of 1.2% of GDP this year,
widening to 2.5% in 2015.
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY 23
Banking Sector 25
Banking Sector: Mild But Steady Growth 25
We expect Omani commercial banks to record a moderate expansion over 2014 and 2015, with a slight acceleration in both deposit and
lending growth compared to the latter months of 2013.
TABLE: BANKS' NET PROFIT 25
TABLE: BANKING SECTOR OVERV IEW 25
tABLE: Commercial Banking Sector - A Changing Regulatory Environment 26
Chapter 1.3: 10-Year Forecast - Oman 27
The Omani Economy To 2023 27
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil 27
Declining oil production will weigh on growth over the coming decade.
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 27
Chapter 1.4: Business Environment - Oman 29
SWOT Analysis 29
Business Environment Outlook 30
Institutions 30
TABLE: BMI BUSINES AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS 30
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING 31
Infrastructure 32
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY 32
Market Orientation 33
TABLE: MENA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS 33
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS 34
Operational Risk 35
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2000-2008 35
Executive Summary - Yemen 35
Core Views 37
Key Risk To Outlook 37
Chapter 2.1: Political Outlook - Yemen 39
SWOT Analysis 39
Political Risk 40
State Building Beleaguered By Instability In 2014 40
Recent developments in Yemen's political transition bode well for the country's medium-term outlook.
TABLE: Political Overview 40
Long-Term Political Outlook 42
Turbulent Decade Ahead: Scenarios For Change 42
Chapter 2.2: Economic Outlook - Yemen 45
SWOT Analysis 45
Economic Activity 46
Security Risks To Weigh Down Growth 46
We forecast real GDP in Yemen to expand by 4.1% in 2014 and 4.3% in 2015.
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 46
Monetary Policy 48
Inflation Remaining Elevated In 2014 48
We project consumer price index inflation in Yemen to average 10.0% in 2014 and 10.5% in 2015, compared to 11.0% in 2013.
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY 48
Chapter 2.3: 10-Year Forecast - Yemen 51
The Yemeni Economy To 2023 51
Oil And Water: Not Enough Of Either 51
On top of its political troubles, over the next 10 years
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts 51
Chapter 2.4: Business Environment - Yemen 53
SWOT Analysis 53
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions 55
Global Outlook 55
Chinese Economy Under Pressure 55
Table: Global Assumptions 55
Table : Developed States , Real GDP Growt H, % 56
Table : BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 56
Table : Eme rging Markets , Real GDP Growth , % 57

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Ahmad

+1 718 618 4302

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Global Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry Outlook to 2020 - Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Operating and Planned Pipelines

Global Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry Outlook to 2020 - Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Operating and Planned Pipelines

  • $ 8 000
  • Industry report
  • June 2016
  • by Global Data

Global Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry Outlook to 2020 - Capacity and Capital Expenditure Forecasts with Details of All Operating and Planned Pipelines Summary "Global Oil and Gas Pipelines Industry Outlook ...

Corrosion Monitoring Market by Type Technique, End-Use Industry - Global Forecast to 2021

Corrosion Monitoring Market by Type Technique, End-Use Industry - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5 650
  • Industry report
  • September 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

“Global corrosion monitoring market projected to register a CAGR of 9.1%” The corrosion monitoring market size is estimated to reach USD 297.8 million by 2021, at a CAGR of 9.1% between 2016 and 2021. ...

Antifoaming Agent Market by Type, Application & by Region - Global Forecast to 2021

Antifoaming Agent Market by Type, Application & by Region - Global Forecast to 2021

  • $ 5 650
  • Industry report
  • June 2016
  • by MarketsandMarkets

The market size of antifoaming agent, in terms of value, is estimated to reach USD 6.59 billion by 2021 and is projected to register a CAGR of 3.8% between 2016 and 2021. The growing demand from majo ...


ref:plp2014

Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.