1. Market Research
  2. > Aerospace and Defence Market Trends
  3. > Greece Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

Greece Business Forecast Report Q3 2014

  • June 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 45 pages

Core Views

We expect a return to positive economic growth in 2014 following six years of depression. Thereafter we expect growth to remain well below the pre-crisis range.
Underpinning positive economic growth will be a stabilisation in domestic demand as well as a positive contribution from the current account. The prospect of further spending cuts and tax hikes will ensure that demonstrations and national strikes remain a key feature of the political landscape over the medium term.

Major Forecast Changes

There are no major forecast changes this quarter.

Table Of Contents

Greece Business Forecast Report Q3 2014
Executive Summary. 5
Core Views..5
Major Forecast Changes5
Key Risks To Outlook5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook. 7
SWOT Analysis.. 7
BMI Political Risk Ratings 7
Domestic Politics . 8
Additional Debt Restructuring Still On The Cards...8
With Greece now running a primary budget surplus a year earlier than expected, another round of debt restructuring is on the cards.
We stress, however, that the presence of a funding gap in 2014 and 2015 in the headline fiscal data could reduce the government's
bargaining power with its international creditors. Moreover, we would expect some form of soft restructuring such as maturity extensions
or reductions in interest costs in the first instance, before outright debt forgiveness is eventually pursued.
Table: Political Overview.8
Long-Term Political Outlook 9
A Decade Of Austerity And Instability..9
Greece's political landscape is likely to become more tumultuous in the coming years. The legacy of fiscal profligacy and economic
distortions will leave an indelible mark on the Greek economy and society, with political voices potentially becoming more fragmented.
W e therefore expect a prolonged bout of austerity and instability in the decade ahead.
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook 13
SWOT Analysis 13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings... 13
Economic Activity I. 14
Return To Growth In 2014 Key For Investor Sentiment.14
The Greek economy is set to return to positive growth in 2014, aided by a stabilisation in household expenditure and an improving trade
balance. Despite paying a high cost for economic adjustment during the last six years of depression, the economy will not be returning
to the sort of growth rates enjoyed during the pre-crisis years. Instead, the loss of productive capacity, an impaired labour market and
still lack of cost competitiveness will translate into a very weak longer -term potential growth rate.
Balance Of Payments . 16
Strong Euro Risks Eroding Export Gains..16
Having gone through a difficult multi-year correction, Greece's current account has returned to surplus. We expect a further surplus
in 2014, with the current account being close to balance over the medium term. We continue to stress that given that this has been
predicated more on a collapse in imports than a marked improvement in foreign market export share, Greece's longer-term growth
potential remains weak. Furthermore, the lingering strength of the euro threatens to undermine the progress that has been made in
recent years to improve cost competitiveness.
Debt Policy .. 18
Demand For Greek Bonds Masks Credit Risk...18
Greece's first sovereign debt issue since entering its first bailout programme has attracted substantial interest from investors hunting for
yield in an environment in which developed market policy rates are still at record rows. Despite the enthusiasm for the issue, we warn
that the longer term outlook for Greek sovereign debt remains precarious, with additional restructuring involving the official sector likely
in the coming years.
Economic Activity II ... 19
Deflation Persists.19
Consumer price deflation continues to run its course in Greece, underpinned by still weak domestic demand, insufficient credit supply
and a strong euro. We expect deflation to continue through 2014 before edging back into inflation territory the following year as the
economy gradually returns to positive growth.
Banking Sector ... 21
Banking Sector: Further Deleveraging Ahead...21
The Greek banking sector is still stuck in deleveraging mode and is likely to record another year of asset contraction in 2014. Our core
forecasts see a return to positive asset growth in 2015 alongside the economy's emergence from its six-year depression. However,
there are significant risks to this forecast, not least the European Central Bank's Asset Quality Review which could deter banks from
taking on more risk in the form of lending to the private sector.
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast... 23
The Greek Economy To 2023. 23
Lower Growth Path To Emerge Over The Long Term23
With international credit conditions unlikely to return to pre-2008 levels over the foreseeable future, we expect both consumer and
investment spending to be more subdued over the longer term, anchoring the Greek economy onto a lower growth path than that seen
leading up to the global credit crisis. Moreover, while trade rebalancing has closed the current account gap, the adjustment process has
been driven more import compression rather than substantial competitiveness gains in the export sector, which suggests that Greece's
longer-term growth trajectory will be adversely affected.
Table: Long -Term Macro economic For ecasts 23
Chapter 4: Business Environment. 25
SWOT Analysis 25
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings.. 25
Business Environment Outlook. 26
Institutions... 26
Infrastructure... 27
Market Orientation... 29
Operational Risk.. 31
Chapter 5: Key Sectors.. 33
Defence and Security . 33
Table: Defence Expenditure...34
Shipping... 36
Table: Major Ports Data...38
Table: Trade Overvi ew..39
Other Key Sectors... 41
Table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indic ators .41
Table: Pharm a Sector Key Indic ators 41
Table: Autos Sector Key Indic ators ...41
tA BLE : Telecoms Sector Key Indic ators 42
Table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indic ators .42
Table: Infr astructur e Sector Key Indic ators ...42
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions. 43
Global Outlook. 43
Emerging Market Deceleration43
Table: Glob al Assumptions .43
Table: Develop ed States, Real GDP Growt H, %...44
Table: Em erging Mark ets , Real GDP Growth , %..45

View This Report »

Get Industry Insights. Simply.

  • Latest reports & slideshows with insights from top research analysts
  • 24 Million searchable statistics with tables, figures & datasets
  • More than 10,000 trusted sources
24/7 Customer Support

Talk to Veronica

+1 718 514 2762

Purchase Reports From Reputable Market Research Publishers
Global Defense Spends (Air Force, Army and Navy) - 2012 to 2020

Global Defense Spends (Air Force, Army and Navy) - 2012 to 2020

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)

Summary Strategic Defense Intelligence in its report "Global Defense Spends (Air Force, Army and Navy) - 2012 to 2020" has considered Revenue Expenditure which includes troop training, institutional education, ...

Europe Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024

Europe Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)

Summary Strategic Defense Intelligence in its report "Europe Defense Spends on C4ISR Electronics and IT: 2016 to 2024" provides quantitative top-level view of projected spends on C4ISR Electronics and ...

Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024

Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024

  • $ 7 999
  • Industry report
  • August 2016
  • by Strategic Defence Intelligence (SDI)

Summary Strategic Defense Intelligence in its report "Europe Defense Spends on CBRN: 2016 to 2024" provides quantitative top-level view of projected spends on CBRN. According to Strategic Defense Intelligence, ...


Reportlinker.com © Copyright 2016. All rights reserved.

ReportLinker simplifies how Analysts and Decision Makers get industry data for their business.