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Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 32 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Egyptian tourism industry, once a thriving destination for European holidaymakers, hassuffered serious setbacks in recent months. High-profile terrorist attacks on tourism destinations,geopolitical uncertainty, domestic political conflict and the downing of a Russian civilian airliner andsubsequent flight suspensions have all negatively impacted tourism prospects. The Red Sea resort areas inparticular have seen a massive fall in occupancy rates and, while travel to Cairo is still relatively strong,overall we expect to see a significant contraction in international tourism arrivals in 2016. Marketfundamentals remain solid, however, with a well-developed hotel market and broad range of attractionsensuring that once the security issues are resolved and flights resumed, Egypt will most likely see a returnto positive growth. Nevertheless, we hold a cautiously optimistic view and retain the position that majorsecurity challenges and insecurity hurdles must be addressed before tourists begin to return in massivenumbers.

Key Updates & Forecasts

- The unexplained downing of EgyptAir MS804, which was travelling from Paris to Cairo, has furtherupset a volatile security situation in Egypt, fuelling fears of another aviation terrorist attack.

- Several airlines have extended the ban on flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. Thomas Cook has extended itsrestriction through to October 31. EasyJet currently plans to relaunch flights from London Stansted toSharm el-Sheikh in May, though flights from other UK airports will remain suspended.

- There are reports that Russia is negotiating with Egypt to resume civilian flights to the country. Althougha positive sign, we also note the reports that several major airlines including British Airways andEmirates have threatened to halt airline ticket sales in Egypt due to issues relating to the blockage ofrevenue.

- As a result of these developments and in light of ongoing security issues, we are forecasting a fall ininternational arrivals of 7.1% in 2016. We have revised our forecast projections and believe that growthwill not resume until 2019. Any further terrorist attacks or deterioration in the regional security situationwill lead to another downwards revision of our forecast.

Table Of Contents

Egypt Tourism Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 5
Table: Key Forecasts (Egypt 2013-2020) 5
Tourism 7
Industry Forecast 9
Table: Inbound Tourism (Egypt 2013-2020) 12
Table: Tourism Receipts (Egypt 2013-2020) 14
Table: Hotel Accommodation (Egypt 2013-2020) 16
Table: Tourist Departures and Consumption (Egypt 2013-2020) 17
Industry Risk/Reward Index 18
Tourism Risk/Reward Index 18
Table: MENA Tourism Industry Risk/Reward Index 18
Rewards 18
Risks 19
Security Risk 20
Market Overview 21
Competitive Landscape 26
Domestic Hotel Groups 27
Table: Domestic Hotel Groups 27
International Hotel Groups 28
Table: International Hotel Groups 28
Methodology 29
Industry Forecast Methodology 29
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 30
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 32

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