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  4. > Italy Power Report Q3 2016

Italy Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 66 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Italy's power sector faces numerous challenges in the short- to medium term. As well as fallingenergy prices across Europe, consumption rates are also declining in Italy, undermining demand for anynew installed capacity. Many power firms are phasing out ageing coal-fired power plants and overall weexpect to see a decline in thermal capacity over the forecast period. Some growth will be realised in thenon-hydropower renewables sector, particularly solar and wind power, which are already well establishedin Italy. We also expect to see further solid investment in the country's national transmission grid, as well asupgrades and expansion work to cross-border connections. The primary risk to our forecasts, and toinvestor interest, stems from an uncertain regulatory environment in relation to renewable energy subsidiesbeyond end-2016.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Natural-gas fired power is currently the largest single contributor to Italy's domestic energy mix,accounting for almost 45% of total electricity generation in 2016. Falling gas prices throughout Europe,while potentially boosting short-term profit margins, will undermine investor interest in this sector andwe expect to see limited growth in natural-gas generation throughout the forecast period through to 2025.

- The outlook is more subdued for coal and oil-fired thermal power. Ageing thermal infrastructure is beingphased out and in 2016 we expect coal-fired generation to contract

- 12.9%, while oil-fired power will fall 21.0%, with further declines expected throughout the ten-yearforecast period.

- In contrast, non-hydropower renewables will see slow, but steady growth as new wind and solar powerplants are brought online. The wind power sector will receive a short-term boost from the April 2016European Commission approval of regulatory updates, which will release EUR400mn in subsidies for theyear, although a lack of clarity for post-2016 subsidies remains a headwind to growth.

Table Of Contents

Italy Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Italy 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Italy Snapshot 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2015-2019) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Italy 2020-2025) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Italy Power Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 21
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 23
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports and Exports 25
Table: Italy's Recent Power Transmission Sector Developments 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 28
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2014-2019) 29
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Italy 2020-2025) 29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 30
NAWE Power RRI: US Outperforms Tepid European Power Markets 30
Italy Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Rewards 36
Risks 37
Market Overview 38
Key Policies And Market Structure 38
Regulation And Competition 38
Pricing 40
Italy Power Projects Database 41
Competitive Landscape 43
Enel 43
Edison 44
Terna 44
Other Companies: Risk To Profits Will Encourage Thermal Power Consolidation 44
Company Profile 46
Enel 46
Regional Overview 52
NAWE Power Key Themes 52
Glossary 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Methodology 61
Methodology And Sources 61
Industry Forecast Methodology 61
Sources 64
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 64
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66

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