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Kazakhstan Mining Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 49 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Kazakhstan's mining sector remains well placed for long-term expansion over the next fewyears, with the country taking advantage of its geographical location to position itself as an importantsupplier of commodities to the Asian and European markets. While we forecast the prices of key minedcommodities such as coal, copper and iron ore to remain weak through to 2020, the sector is well placed totake advantage of the upside and, in particular, renewed demand from the likes of China and India.Strengthening trade links with these markets appear to support his strategy.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Despite ongoing weakness in global commodity prices we anticipate positive growth in Kazakhstan's coaland iron ore production in 2016 and through the remaining forecast period. We forecast coal output togrow by 1.9% a year on average over 2016-2020 to reach 143mn tonnes (mnt), while iron ore output willincrease by 1.2% to 28.1mnt.

- Prices of both commodities will contract in 2016, with iron ore prices averaging USD48/tonne comparedwith USD55.5/tonne last year and thermal call slipping by 1.7% to USD51/tonne. The price of copperwill also fall, averaging USD4,900/tonne compared with USD5,493/tonne in 2015.

- The long-term growth of the mining sector will be supported by increased overseas demand as well as thegrowing needs of the domestic energy sector. The country's mining and energy sectors are attracting theattention of China and India and the Kazakhstani and Chinese governments recently signed agreementsworth USD5.1bn in the field of transport, energy, nuclear, metallurgical and chemical industries. Thisincludes the construction of a mining and metallurgical complex in Kazakhstan's Akmola region.

- In fact, Chinese investment in Kazakhstan's mining sector will rise in the coming years. Chinese minersmay be interested in acquiring Glencore's Vasilkovskoye gold mine, according to FT sources. Glencoresaid it is considering selling this mine which has more than 5m oz of proven and probable gold reservesin order to cut its debt.

- Furthermore, multinational steelmaker ArcelorMittal announced the divestment of its Kuzbass coalmines in Siberia to Russia's National Fuel Company in January 2016. The move will allow the companyto focus on its Kazakh mining operations, which has recently undergone a USD430mn expansion.

Table Of Contents

Kazakhstan Mining Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Kazakhstan Mining Industry Value Forecast (2015-2020) 7
Industry Forecast 11
Coal: Export Growth To Drive Production 11
Latest Updates 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 12
Structural Trends 13
Industry Set For Solid Growth 14
Iron Ore: China Partnership May Fuel Long-Term Growth 16
Latest Developments 16
Table: Iron Ore Production Forecast (Kazakhstan 2012-2020) 16
Structural Trends 17
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 19
Kazakhstan Risk/Reward Index 19
Rewards 19
Risks 19
Europe: Risk/Reward Index 21
Table: Europe - Mining Risk/Reward Index 22
Regulatory Development 23
Table: Kazakhstan - Mineral Extraction Taxes 23
Trade and Investment Risk Analysis 25
Commodities Forecast 28
Commodities Outlook 28
Table: BMI Commodities Price Forecasts 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Table: Largest Mining Companies - Eastern Europe 30
Company Profile 34
KAZ Minerals 34
Table: KAZ Minerals - Financial Results 36
Eurasian Natural Resources 37
Table: Eurasian Resources - Financial Results 38
Regional Overview 39
Methodology 46
Industry Forecast Methodology 46
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 48
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49

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