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Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 85 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We continue to have a positive outlook for the Nigerian mobile market and the country'stelecoms sector in general. This is despite an increasingly challenging economic climate which, in Q116,saw a 0.4% contraction in real GDP - largely attributable to falling crude prices and oil production.Subscription growth in the mobile market continues to be driven by factors including operators'promotional activities, multiple SIM ownership and the extension of network coverage to underservedareas. Meanwhile broadband penetration remains very low. There continues to be significant demand fortraditional voice and data services, and to a large extent this demand has remained untapped.

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

- Nigerian mobile subscriptions reached an impressive 150.83mn by the end of 2015, up 8.5% y-o-y,with penetration reaching 82.8%. Then in Q116, the mobile sector contracted by 1.5%, with the totalcustomer base shrinking by 2.26mn. Airtel and Globacom continued to see positive customer growthin the first quarter of 2016. However, as in Q415, both MTN and Etisalat experienced decliningcustomer base. The negative customer growth at MTN and Etisalat reflected efforts by those operators toenforce new rules on the definition of an active mobile customer.

- We currently expect the number of 3G and 4G customers to rise to about 40.4mn by the end of 2016,equivalent to 24.9% of the mobile subscriber base, rising to 108.14mn by the end of 2020, equivalent to54% of the market.

- MTN and the government of Nigeria agreed in June that the operator will pay a fine of NGN330bn(USD1.671bn), down from the original fine of USD5.2bn, for failing to disconnect unregisteredSIMs. Further reducing the burden to a manageable level for the operator, MTN will pay the fine over aperiod of three years.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Telecoms 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2020) 16
Industry Risk Reward Index 17
Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 20
Nigeria Risk/Reward Index 22
Market Overview 24
Market Drivers and Trends 24
Mobile 24
Wireline Voice and Broadband 36
Table: Nigeria - Fixed-Line Market, March 2014 - March 2016 37
Table: Nigeria - Wireline Developments, 2013-2016 41
Regulatory Development 42
Table: Nigeria - Overview Of The Nigerian Communications Commission 42
Competition 44
Competitive Landscape 49
Table: Key Players - Telecoms Sector 49
Table: Nigeria - Mobile Market, June 2014-March 2016 49
Table: MTN Nigeria, June 2014-March 2016 50
Table: Globacom, June 2014-March 2016 51
Table: Airtel, June 2014-March 2016 52
Table: Etisalat, June 2014-March 2016 52
Table: Visafone, June 2014-March 2016 53
Company Profile 54
MTN 54
Globacom 59
Airtel 63
Etisalat Nigeria 67
NITEL 71
Demographic Forecast 74
Demographic Outlook 74
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 75
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 75
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 76
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 77
Glossary 79
Table: Glossary Of Terms 79
Methodology 81
Industry Forecast Methodology 81
Sources 83
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 83
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 85

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