Romania Freight Transport Industry Update Quarter 3 2012

  • July 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

Following a year in which BMI believes growth slowed in all freight modes but one, 2012 will signal further slowdown as freight volumes struggle to return to pre-downturn levels.
Though total trade is also projected to slow, our country risk desk still projections a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5.05% in 2012, following growth of 6.85% in 2011. Road freight is to continue to dominate the segment and is projected to grow by 5% in 2012. The segment did not manage to defy the downturn, but appears to have begun its recovery and is ready to defy EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region.
BMI notes that rail, the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, is expected to see the privatisation of a 51% stake in CFR Marfa, Romania's national rail freight industry player and the largest rail freight operator in the country, by the end of 2012.

Headline Market Data
- 2012 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.3% - 2012 Rail freight is projection to grow by 1.2% - 2012 Port of Constantza throughput is projection to decrease by 4.5% - 2012 Road freight is projection to grow by 5.1% - 2012 Inland waterway freight is projection to grow by 6.3% - 2012 Total real trade growth is projection at 5.1%.

Key Market Trends
CFR Marfa Gets Privatisation Consultant In the latest chapter of the privatisation saga, Romania's Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure named in April 2012 the consultants to help privatise the loss-making national rail freight firm, and the largest rail freight operator in the country, CFR Marfa. Privatisation of a 51% stake in the industry player is expected to be completed by October 2012.
GFR Looks Abroad While Romania's largest rail freight carrier awaits privatisation, Grup Feroviar Român (GFR), a private industry player and the country's second largest rail freight operator, was reported to be looking to grow its operations into Greece.
Global Logistics Providers Expand Romania Services Hellmann Worldwide Logistics has extended its service to Romania, while CEVA Logistics also opened a Romanian office to enhance its Eastern European freight management operations.
Constantza to Improve Railway Infrastructure The project focusing on the development of the railway capacity in the river-maritime area of Romania's main port, Constantza, is to go ahead, after the contract for the execution works was finally signed following the decision of the Bucharest Court of Appeal. Increasing the railway capacity for the transport of dry bulk cargoes from and to the port and boosting freight transit volumes on trans-European transport network (TEN-T) via Constantza are among the project's objectives.
LNG And China's Products At Constantza A feasibility study of Romania's AGRI project, involving the transportation of liquefied gas from Azerbaijan to Romania via Georgia's Black Sea coast, will be completed in September 2012. As part of the project, a regasification terminal will be built in Constantza to receive gas supplies. In a separate development, the country wants to turn the Port of Constantza into a gateway for China's exports to the EU.
Risks to Outlook BMI highlights the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas with risk to the upside. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania projection to slightly strengthen. The country's real Gross Domestic Product is estimated to increase by 1.4% in 2012.
A downside risk to our projections comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone. Decreasing demand will affect the country's ports and freight transport network and its export growth is projection to slow to 4.9% in 2012. The Port of Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe might also be affected.

Table Of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Industry SWOT Analysis . 7
Romania Freight Transport Industry Environment and Risk Analysis .. 7
Romania Political Environment and Risk Analysis ... 7
Romania Economic Environment and Risk Analysis . 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT . 8
Industry Trends And Developments .. 9
Rail . 9
Maritime ... 10
Intermodal And Logistics .. 11

Industry Analysis . 13

Market Projection ... 16
Air . 16
Data : Air Freight, from 2008 to 2016 (’000 tonnes) ... 16
Maritime ... 16
Data : Maritime Freight - Throughput, from 2008 to 2016 (’000 tonnes) ... 17
Rail ... 17
Data : Rail Freight, from 2008 to 2016 ... 17
Road.. 17
Data : Road Freight, from 2008 to 2016 .. 18
Inland Waterways . 18
Data : Inland Waterway Freight, from 2007 to 2016 ... 18
Trade 19
Data : Trade Overview, from 2008 to 2016 . 19
Data : Key Trade Indicators, from 2008 to 2016 (US$mn) .. 19
Data : Romania's Main Import Partners, from 2002 to 2009 (US$mn) ... 20
Data : Romania's Main Export Partners, from 2002 to 2009 (US$mn) ... 20
World Oil Products Price Outlook ... 21
Data : BMI's Refined Products Projections, from 2010 to 2016 . 21
Political Outlook . 30
Domestic Politics .. 30
Long-Term Political Outlook 32

Macroeconomic Data ... 35
Data : Romania - Economic Activity, from 2011 to 2016 . 37
Company Profiles ... 38
TAROM Cargo . 38
DB Schenker Romtrans 40
CFR Marfa ... 42
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 44
Data : Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) .. 45
Data : Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 46
Data : Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 47
Data : Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 ... 47
BMI Methodology ... 48
How We Generate Our Market Projections .. 48
Transport Market ... 48
Sources 49

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