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Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 65 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The Saudi Arabian government's plan to diversify its power sector away from oil-firedgeneration will be restricted as continued low oil prices constrain fiscal spending. Thermal powergeneration will remain dominant over our 10-year forecast period, particularly through gas-fired projects.Fiscal pressures and stringent local content requirements will be an obstacle to the nascent renewablepower sector and the government will struggle to meet its capacity targets.

Latest Trends And Developments:

- To finance construction of the 2640 megawatt (MW) Shuqaiq power plant, the Saudi ElectricityCompany (SEC) has signed a USD900mn loan agreement with the Export-Import Bank of Korea(KEXIM) and several other international banks, including Santander Bank, Deutsche Bank and theBank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ. The total cost of the power plant is estimated at USD3.2bn.

- Under the newly unveiled 'Saudi Arabia Vision 2030' plan, the government has announced that it nowplans to increase gas-fired capacity to generate 70% of total electricity output in the country by 2030.

- Under the same plan, the Saudi Arabian government has decided to alter its renewables targets. Targetshave been reduced to 9.5GW of renewables capacity by 2023. This is after the decision was made to pushback the target of 41GW of solar to 2040 (after it was originally planned for 2032). We forecast thesedecreased targets will remain due to the prolonged period of low oil prices forecast, which will dragdown government revenue and constrain fiscal spending.

- We also note that the plan makes no mention of nuclear power, which we will monitor as it could meanthat future plans for nuclear will be scrapped.

- The amount of gas required to reach the desired goals outlined in the Vision 2030 plan means we do notinclude this into our forecasts as of yet until we see progress in developing gas-fired capacity (as well asgas exploration) to the capacity required to achieve this target.

- SEC has called for two tenders of 50 megawatts (MW) of solar capacity each. The two solar farms areplanned to be in the regions of Al-Jouf and Rafha.

Table Of Contents

Saudi Arabia Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (2015-2021) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Saudi Arabia Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Saudi Arabia Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Saudi Arabia - Original 2032 Power Sector Targets (Eventually Pushed Back To 2040) 12
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 27
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 30
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 30
Transmission and Distribution 30
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2014-2019) 32
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2020-2025) 32
Industry Risk/Reward Index 33
MENA Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index 39
Saudi Arabia Power Risk Reward Index 40
Rewards 40
Market Overview 42
Key Policies And Market Structure 42
Regulation And Competition 42
Table: IPP - Investment Opportunities 43
Sustainable Energy Policies 45
Saudi Arabia Power Projects Database 46
Competitive Landscape 48
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) 50
Regional Overview 51
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 51
Glossary 59
Table: Glossary Of Terms 59
Methodology 60
Methodology And Sources 60
Industry Forecast Methodology 60
Sources 63
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 63
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 65

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