Table of Contents
A Clear Shift to New Markets
The market for fixed-wing aircraft used by the military has been consistently growing in the overall defense market. Since defense budgets are now facing significant turmoil in North America and Europe, the market for fixed-wing aircraft will be under considerable downward pressure. The exits of several key manufacturers and the entries of new manufacturers from other regions have resulted in new market dynamics. This research covers the period from 2011 through 2017 from a global perspective. The results are based on industry interviews, published data, and known demand for fixed-wing aircraft by militaries world-wide.
• Budget pressures in North America and Europe are significantly affecting both new aircraft production numbers and delivery revenue on a global basis.
• The Asia-Pacific and Rest of World regions provide some boost to the market but the overall impact is minimal.
• Major production programs, such as the F-35, are becoming prohibitively expensive.
• Transport aircraft are still selling well, but demand is decreasing.
• Specialty aircraft noted here as “C4ISR” aircraft have consistent demand, especially for low-cost platforms.
• Modification programs are declining slightly as conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan draw to a close, but they will recover toward the end of the forecast period.
• MRO revenue is also declining slowly as fleet sizes are reduced.
• There is still a tendency for production to be for domestic consumption, but companies outside of North America and Europe are slowly gaining market share.
• Many of the long-standing production programs are reaching the end of their natural lives, which will change market dynamics.
1. Aircraft production is generally declining in total deliveries with flat revenue growth.
2. Aircraft fleets are declining in size with a corresponding decline in MRO revenue.
3. Modification revenue growth is pronounced in APAC and Rest of World.
4. The total market for military fixed-wing aircraft and support will be flat globally.
5. Europe and North America remain the largest markets but will decline overall.
Geographic Coverage: Global
Study Period: 2011–2017
Base Year: 2012
Forecast Period: 2013–2017
Monetary Unit: US dollars
• This market includes military fixed-wing aircraft in the following categories:
- Trainer/light attack
- Special purpose aircraft identified as C4ISR
• This research divides the globe into:
- North America (NA): US and Canada
- Europe: EU, CIS states and Russia
- Asia-Pacific (APAC): Effectively from X to Xdegrees east Longitude
- Rest of World: all other areas—some portions of the research will refine individual regions
• Units are individual aircraft.
• Pricing varies greatly between aircraft and often between buyers. Revenue is based on the most common pricing by aircraft type.
• Definitions of revenue:
- For new aircraft, the revenue is attributed to the original equipment manufacturer (OEM).
- For major modifications, the lead integrator is identified, but revenue may actually accrue from several suppliers and government entities.
- For support activities, such as contracted maintenance (MRO), only contractual payment information and the recipients are identified.
- Additional regional information for the entire maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) cost structure will be estimated and identified by sourcing.
• Terms and acronyms used in this research will be identified as they occur.
• MRO and modification estimates are not included for China, and MRO is not included for Russia.
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
• Are the declining budgets in western nations limiting the growth of the military fixed-wing aircraft market?
• Will western nations’ suppliers continue to be the dominant forces in the market?
• Is the mix of aircraft changing and what dynamics may be driving those changes?
• Is teaming becoming the norm for all except the most standard aircraft?
• Will OEMs become major forces in aftermarket support of aircraft?
• Where are the new market participants going to appear?
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