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United Arab Emirates Power Report Q3 2016

  • September 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 58 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: This quarter our forecasts remain virtually unchanged, and we continue to hold an upbeatoutlook for the UAE power sector - this is driven by the government's efforts to expand its powercapacity. As corroborated by recent developments, we continue to expect the UAE to focus on expanding itsnascent nuclear and solar industries, which will result in these two sectors making a much greatercontribution to the country's electricity capacity and generation mix over our forecast period. While solarand nuclear gain traction, the role of natural gas in the power mix will diminish, freeing up gas for export.Yet we remain sceptical about the ability of the country to meet its targets with the expected speed.

Key Trends And Developments

- Nuclear power generation will be a key component of the UAE's power mix diversification strategy overthe next decade. We believe increasing natural gas imports, due to strong power consumption growth andheavy reliance on gas-fired power generation, will be the key driver of such efforts. The continuedgrowth in gas demand will reinforce government support for diversification, adding tailwinds to nuclearpower, as well as renewables, over the longer term. Despite the dominance of natural gas, nuclear andrenewables will grow significantly over our 10-year forecast period, as a strong project pipeline fornuclear reactors and solar power plants begins to go online.

- The UAE's position as a GCC regional hotspot for solar development will remain unrivalled over our 10-year forecast period, as advantageous climatic conditions, the increasing cost competitiveness of solarpower and strong government commitment to power mix diversification drive growth. The strengtheningproject pipeline is testament to this view.

- Inefficient consumption of electricity and a reliance on energy-intensive water desalination plants supportour bullish outlook for power consumption in the UAE over the next decade. We expect the governmentto aim to curb such growth through boosting energy efficiency - efforts we believe will centre onimplementing measures that ensure smarter consumption of electricity and water. We expectopportunities to increasingly be on offer for companies that operate in this space, and in turn, this willpresent a downside risk to our power consumption forecast.

Table Of Contents

United Arab Emirates Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
United Arab Emirates Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Arab Emirates 2015-2020) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
United Arab Emirates Power Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 11
Thermal Generation and Thermal Generating Capacity 12
Nuclear Generation and Nuclear Generating Capacity 14
Table: Planned UAE Nuclear Power Reactors 15
Renewables Generation And Generating Capacity 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 18
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 19
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 20
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 20
Electricity Consumption 21
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 22
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 23
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports 23
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2014-2019) 24
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (United Arab Emirates 2020-2025) 25
Industry Risk/Reward Index 26
MENA Power Risk/Reward Index 26
Table: MENA Power Risk/Reward Index 32
United Arab Emirates Power Risk/Reward Index 33
Rewards 33
Risks 34
Market Overview 35
Key Policies And Market Structure 35
Regulation And Competition 35
Sustainable Energy Policies 36
United Arab Emirates Power Projects Database 37
Table: United Arab Emirates - Top 10 Power Projects By Capacity 37
Competitive Landscape 39
DEWA 39
ADWEA 40
TAQA 40
Company Profile 41
TAQA 41
Regional Overview 44
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview 44
Glossary 52
Table: Glossary Of Terms 52
Methodology 53
Methodology And Sources 53
Industry Forecast Methodology 53
Sources 56
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 56
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58

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