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  5. > United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 137 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: While we see a provisional uptick in oil and gas production in the UK based on projects in thepipeline, the long-term trend remains one of stagnation - given falling volumes from mature fields; a lack ofsignificant new discoveries; falling oil prices; and increasing exploration, production and operational costsin the region, at a time when oil companies are seeking capex cuts. While shale gas presents upside risk togas production, this will not come online before the early 2020s at the earliest and we expect anydevelopment to be protracted. Significant fiscal incentives put in place following the ongoing fiscal reviewprovide some upside risk to our oil and gas production outlook past 2018/2019. However, further reformsand higher sustained oil prices will be necessary to realise this upside risk.The main trends and developments we highlight in the UK oil and gas sector are:Exploration

- We retain our bearish oil and gas exploration forecasts this quarter, with 2016 shaping up to bepotentially weaker then the woeful performance of 2015. Low oil prices, maturing fields and highoperating costs make the UK North Sea region a relatively unattractive area for exploration. This willmostly endure over the coming years, despite the recent fiscal and development incentives enacted inearly 2015.

- Th

e impact of the tax reductions for all E&Ps operating in the North Sea, will have a negligible impact onexploration levels as companies focus on maximising production rather than expanding their resourcebase.

- The British parliament passed regulations permitting the drilling underneath protected area that includenational parks, Areas of Outstanding National Beauty (AONB), the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads and World Heritage Sites. Companies will be allowed dill wellheads outside of protected areas and drillhorizontally beneath the parks at a minimum depth of 1,200m.

Table Of Contents

United Kingdom Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Lacklustre Exploration To Continue In 2016 11
Exploration-Specific Incentives Required To Boost Exploration 14
Unconventional Gas 15
Upstream Projects 21
Table: United Kingdom - Major Upstream Projects 21
Upstream Production - Oil 36
Latest Updates 36
Structural Trends 36
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 40
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 44
Table: Oil Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 44
Upstream Production - Gas 45
Latest Updates 45
Structural Trends 45
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 50
Table: Gas Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 50
Refining 51
Latest Updates 51
Structural Trends 51
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 54
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 55
Refined Fuels Consumption 56
Latest Updates 56
Structural Trends 56
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 58
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 58
Gas Consumption 59
Latest Updates 59
Structural Trends 59
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 64
Table: Gas Consumption (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 65
Trade - Oil 66
Crude Oil Trade Forecasts 66
Latest Updates 66
Structural Trends 66
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2020) 68
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 69
Refined Fuels Trade Forecasts 69
Latest Updates 69
Structural Trends 69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 71
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 71
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 72
Latest Updates 72
Structural Trends 72
Table: United Kingdom LNG Import Contracts 76
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2014-2019) 77
Table: Gas Net Exports (United Kingdom 2020-2025) 78
Industry Risk Reward Index 79
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 79
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 79
Upstream Rankings: North America To Maintain The Lead 80
North America: US Unconventional Production Leads Decline 80
Western Europe Languishes In Maturing Assets 81
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index, out of 100 83
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 83
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index 85
United Kingdom - Risk/Reward Index 86
Upstream Index 86
Downstream Index 87
Market Overview 88
Energy Market Overview 88
Regulatory Structure 88
Licensing Regime 88
Table: UK Licensing Regime 88
Fiscal Regime 89
Table: UK Fiscal Regime As Of 2015 89
Table: A Significant Fiscal Upheaval 91
Licensing Rounds 92
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 93
Oil Refineries 93
Oil Storage Facilities 98
Oil Terminals/Ports 98
Oil Pipelines 98
LNG Terminals 99
Gas Storage Facilities 100
Table: Gas Storage Facilities 101
Gas Pipelines 105
Competitive Landscape 107
Competitive Landscape Summary 107
Table: Key Players - UK Oil and Gas Sector 110
Table: Key Upstream Players 110
Table: Key Downstream Players 111
Company Profile 112
BP 112
Latest Updates 112
Table: Major Upstream Assets In The UK 113
Table: Key Financial Data (USDmn) 113
Royal Dutch Shell 114
Latest Updates 114
Table: Key Assets In The UK 115
Table: Key Financial Data USDmn 115
Total 116
Latest Updates 116
Table: Key Assets In The UK 117
Table: Key Financial Data, USDmn 117
Regional Overview 118
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview 118
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 127
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 129
Glossary 130
Table: Glossary Of Terms 130
Methodology 132
Industry Forecast Methodology 132
Source 134
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 134
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 136
Table: Weighting 137

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