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  4. > Vietnam Power Report Q3 2016

Vietnam Power Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 54 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: There are significant opportunities for independent power producers (IPPs), turbinemanufacturers and private investors in Vietnam's thermal power generation sector - particularly the coalsegment. A flurry of private sector activity in the coal sector will be supported by rapid growth in electricitydemand and market deregulation, as well as delays to nuclear expansion and insufficient domestic gassupplies.The thermal generation segment in Vietnam will continue to offer sizeable opportunities for investors andequipment suppliers. A number of large-scale power projects have advanced in the last few months - withinstitutional investors and utilities entering the sector to benefit from the huge growth potential.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- Rosatom's involvement in Vietnam's emerging nuclear sector aligns with our view that nuclear projects inAsia will be increasingly financed by foreign governments or state-owned utilities - particularly Russiaand China. Despite this development, we are not factoring any nuclear capacity into our 10-year powerforecasts in Vietnam, as there are still numerous barriers to project realisation.

- Vietnam's wind market will continue to be a regional underperformer in terms of total installed capacityover our 10-year forecast period, as a lack of regulations encouraging investment, low wind power tariffsand the government's stronger focus on conventional power sources deter investors from developingprojects. Until these issues are resolved, we expect only sporadic project developments, as opposed to awidespread investment trend.

- We forecast electricity consumption in Vietnam will grow at an annual average of 7.2% between 2015and 2025, and the government will continue to encourage investment in coal-fired capacity to meetdemand. Vietnam's Master Plan VII predicts the country will need 75,000MW of installed capacity by2020. Although we do not believe Vietnam will meet this target, it does serve as an ambitious statementof intent.

Table Of Contents

Vietnam Power Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Power Forecasts (Vietnam 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Vietnam Snapshot 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Vietnam 2015-2019) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Vietnam 2020-2025) 10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 10
Vietnam Power Forecast Scenario 11
Gas Generation And Capacity Forecast 12
Hydropower Generation And Capacity Forecasts 13
Nuclear Generation And Capacity Forecasts 14
Table: Vietnam - Planned and Proposed Nuclear Power Reactors to 2030 16
Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts 16
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 16
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 17
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2020-2025) 17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 18
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2020-2025) 19
Electricity Consumption 19
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 20
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2020-2025) 21
Transmission and Distribution, Imports and Exports 21
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 22
Table: Electric Power TandD Losses Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2020-2025) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2014-2019) 22
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Vietnam 2020-2025) 22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 23
Asia Power RRI: China's Score Slipping, India Pushing Ahead 23
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 30
Vietnam Power Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Key Policies And Market Structure 33
Regulations And Competition 33
International Aid 34
Sustainable Energy Policies 35
Pricing 36
Vietnam Power Projects Database 37
Table: Vietnam Major Projects - Power 37
Competitive Landscape 39
Electricity Of Vietnam (EVN) 40
Regional Overview 41
Asia - Asia Power: Shifting Fuel Dynamics, Coal Still King 41
Glossary 48
Table: Glossary Of Terms 48
Methodology 49
Methodology And Sources 49
Industry Forecast Methodology 49
Sources 52
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 52
Table: Power Risk/Reward Index Indicators 53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 54

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