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Venezuela Retail Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

BMI View:

In the long term, the outlook for the Venezuelan retail sector is favourable, with the country's urbanised population and growing middle class set to drive demand for non-essential items. However, in the short term, retailers face significant challenges. The government's highly interventionist stance, as well as low oil prices, high inflation, difficulties in getting foreign currency and shortages of basic goods, make operating in Venezuela challenging.


Key Views And Developments
- Total household retail spending will rise from USD202.4bn in 2016 to USD494.3bn in 2020, after sharp fluctuations in recent years.
- Groceries will be the single largest component of household retail spending, at almost 33%, cementing the importance of essential products in the Venezuelan retail basket. We see no change in the overall composition of Venezuelan retail spending over our forecast period.
- Venezuela's population will grow from 31.5mn in 2016 to 33.1mn by 2020.

Table Of Contents

Venezuela Retail Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Headline Retail Forecast .. 10
Latest Updates ... 10
Structural Trends ... 11
Table: Total Household Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 11
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 13
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP (Venezuela 2013-2020) 14
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) 15
Retail Sector Forecast .. 18
Latest Updates ... 18
Structural Trends ... 18
Food And Drink . 19
Table: Food, Drink And Tobacco Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) 20
Clothing And Footwear ... 20
Table: Clothing And Footwear Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 21
Household Goods ... 21
Table: Household Goods Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 22
Personal Care ... 22
Table: Personal Care Spending (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 23
Household Income And Numbers Forecast ... 24
Latest Updates ... 24
Structural Trends ... 25
Table: Household Income Data (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 25
Table: Labour Market Data (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 27
Demographic Forecast . 28
Latest Updates ... 28
Structural Trends ... 29
Table: Total Population (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 30
Table: Population: Babies (Venezuela 2013-2020) 30
Table: Population: Children (Venezuela 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children (Venezuela 2013-2020) 31
Table: Population: Young People (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 31
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Venezuela 2013-2020) 32
Table: Population: 21 Years Plus (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 32
Table: Population: Young Adults (Venezuela 2013-2020) . 32
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Venezuela 2013-2020) 33
Table: Population: Urban/Rural (Venezuela 2013-2020) 33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings .. 34
Latin America And The Caribbean Risk/Reward Index 34
Table: Latin America And The Caribbean Retail Risk/Reward Index, Q316 34
Venezuela - Risk/Reward Index .. 35
Rewards ... 35
Risks 36
Market Overview ... 37
Structural Trends ... 37
Shopping Centres ... 38
Department Stores .. 38
Clothing And Footwear ... 38
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement . 39
Electronics ... 39
Pharmacies And Drugstores . 39
E-Commerce . 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Clothing And Footwear ... 40
Table: Selected Clothing And Footwear Retailers 40
Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement . 41
Table: Selected Household Goods, Homeware And Home Improvement Retailers 41
Electronics ... 41
Table: Selected Electronics Retailers . 41
Department Stores .. 42
Table: Selected Department Stores . 42
E-Commerce . 42
Table: Selected E-Commerce Retailers . 42
Pharmacies And Drugstores . 43
Table: Selected Pharmacies And Drug Stores 43
Glossary . 44
Methodology .. 51
Industry Forecast Methodology 51
Sources 54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 54
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Index Indicators 55
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 57

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