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Philippines Renewables Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 50 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Although the Philippine government is vocal in its support for renewable energy as a keystrategy against climate change, high electricity prices have resulted in continuous support for coal power.Regarding non-hydropower renewables, the country has already largely saturated its geothermal powermarket, causing investments to move to other renewable sources, particularly wind and solar, which arealso backed up by governmental Feed-in-Tariff programmes. However, the recent election of RodrigoDuterte is expected to lead to further policy instability and lack of certainty on the investment market forrenewables in the short term, while in the medium term, obstacles including an inadequate national gridand strong market dynamics for coal continue to undermine the government's commitment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- We forecast non-hydropower renewables electricity generation to grow by 8.4% y-o-y in 2016, and nonhydropowerrenewables electricity capacity by about 15.9% y-o-y.

- The revised Feed-in-Tariffs for Wind and Solar in 2015 have shown significant changes in rates for bothsources. While feed-in tariff (FiT) capacity for wind remained constant at 200 megawatts (MW), solarpower received a significant raise from the previous 50MW to 500MW.

- Solar power consequently has seen a boost in awarded projects by the Department of Energy (DoE). Intotal, 2015 and early 2016 saw DoE award about 20 gigawatts (GW) worth of renewable power projectsthat could come online by 2030 - more than the 15.5GW targeted by the government. How many of theseprojects will actually be implemented is, however, highly uncertain.

- Wind power forecasts have suffered from limited FiT support and growing conventional energy projectsin the pipeline. We expect the sector's capacity to stagnate in 2016.

Table Of Contents

Philippines Renewables Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Renewables Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2015-2021) 7
SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 10
Philippines Renewables Forecast Scenario 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends 11
Table: Renewables Capacity Targets (MW) 14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 25
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 26
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2014-2019) 27
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 28
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2020-2025) 29
Philippines Renewables Projects Database 30
Table: Philippines - Top 10 Renewables Projects By Capacity (MW) 30
Industry Risk/Reward Index 31
Philippines Renewables Risk/Reward Index 31
Rewards 31
Risks 31
Market Overview 33
Sustainable Energy Policy And Infrastructure 33
Targets 33
Subsidies 35
Table: Renewable Feed-in-Tariffs, Philippines, October 2015 37
Infrastructure 38
Competitive Landscape 40
Energy Development Corporation 40
First Gen 42
Ayala Corporation 42
Glossary 44
Table: Glossary Of Terms 44
Methodology 45
Methodology And Sources 45
Industry Forecast Methodology 45
Sources 47
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 47
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Index Indicators 49
Table: Weighting Indicators 50

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