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CEO 360 Degree Perspective of the North American Powertrain Market

  • June 2013
  • -
  • Frost & Sullivan
  • -
  • 135 pages

Summary

Table of Contents

The 360 Degree Perspective of the North American Powertrain Market research service provides an overall understanding of technology, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) strategies, and powertrain market drivers and restraints. The study gives a brief outline of regulatory bodies and frameworks for the overall North American automotive market and offers an in-depth coverage of the technology trends and OEM profiles. The study will also contain a forecast scenario that extends to 2020 and sheds light on all current technology and technology trends. An overview of the alternative fuel market, including hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs) is also included.

Fuel efficiency and emission standard compliance are key factors.
•Internal combustion engines will require significant improvement in fuel efficiency to achieve Xfleet mpg, equivalent to Xg/mi CO2.
•Diesel engines will require advanced emission control solutions to achieve significant reduction in exhaust emissions necessary to meet CARB SULEV and EPA Tier II, Bin 2 standards.
•Fuel-efficient technologies, including gasoline direct injection, advanced valvetrain, turbocharging, and auto start/stop in gasoline engines, will penetrate the market markedly by 2020.
•The CAFE regulations, in combination with EPA emission regulations, will be the main technology drivers; total cost of ownership is a key factor from end-customer perspective.
•The market will experience significant powertrain electrification featuring a range of technologies from micro-hybrid systems to full electric propulsion systems.
•Powertrain downsizing targeted towards reducing cylinder count and using a range of enabling technologies such as gasoline, direct injection, and turbocharging to increase fuel efficiency and reduce exhaust emissions.
•There is an increased share ofXand X cylinder engines and a reduction in share of V8s and V10s.
•Emergence of Tier X engine suppliers with vehicle manufacturers working to provide mobility solutions.
•Vehicle manufacturers are expected to retain in-house development and manufacturing of engines with the role of Tier Xsuppliers restricted to niche engines like diesel and CNG.
•End-customer research shows that customers looking for fuel-efficiency outnumber the performance-oriented consumers by X but they are reluctant to compromise performance.
•About 50% of consumers not likely to be influenced by gas price changes while about % will trade in their current vehicle for a more fuel-efficient vehicle at about $X a gallon.

Emission Standards
Federal EPA and California Air Resources Board standards are significantly tighter for 2020 and beyond, requiring advanced emission control solutions.


•Federal Tier II, Bin 2 emission standards are expected to be implemented by 2020 to align with 2019 California Air Resource Board (CARB) SULEV standards. A X% reduction in NOx and X% reduction in NMOG emissions compared to 2012 is expected in 2020.
•2020 emission standards will require advanced emission control equipment, including gasoline particulate filters for larger displacement XX cylinders and over) gasoline engines to meet the particulate matter (PM) standards.
•For diesel engines, meeting the stringent Tier II, Bin 2 standards (~X% lower PM compared to Euro VI) in a cost effective manner without sacrificing fuel efficiency will pose significant challenges.
•Powertrain electrification, particularly the non-plug-in hybrids, will gain momentum as a key long-term emissions and CAFE compliance strategy.

Global Powertrain Mix by Fuels
Pure electric propulsion will account for X– % sales by 2020, and alternative fuels will account for X%.


•Alternative Fuels include LPG, CNG, and high, biofuel-compliant vehicles. Low biofuel-compliant engines (such as •Electric vehicles consist of pure EVs (electric vehicles), plug-in, and hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
•Non plug-in hybrid vehicles are included in their respective internal commbustion engine category—gasoline or diesel.

Vehicle Sales by Powertrain Type
Gasoline will continue to dominate through 2020 with hybrid and EVs capturing a healthy X% sales share, and diesel remains a small niche.


•Hybrids include vehicles that have an internal combustion engine and an electric drivetrain that provides propulsion assist. Hybrid powertrains include both mild and full-hybrid powertrains.
•Powertrains with auto start-stop capability but no propulsion-assist capability are included in gasoline and diesel powertrains.
•EVs are vehicles with electric only or gasoline/diesel-electric hybrid powertrains; their batteries can be charged if plugged into the grid power.

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