EpiCast Report: Type 2 Diabetes - Epidemiology Forecast To 2022



Summary



Type 2 diabetes, formerly known as non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus or adult-onset diabetes mellitus, is a chronic disorder of glucose homeostasis and results from the body’s inability to make use of the available insulin along with relative insulin deficiency (WHO, 2013). This causes excess glucose production by liver cells along with impaired insulin secretion, which leads to an increased blood and urine glucose level. It further leads to steady decline of the beta cells of the pancreas, mainly affecting the metabolism of muscle cells, liver cells and fat cells (Camacho et al., 2007).

Globally, the incidence and prevalence of diabetes are expected to continue to increase due to various factors, such as population growth, aging, urbanization, and the increasing prevalence of risk factors like obesity, unhealthy dietary habits and physical inactivity. The World Health Organization’s (WHO) estimates for 2010 show that globally, approximately 80% of all diabetes-related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, and that diabetes will likely be the seventh-leading cause of death in the world by 2030 (WHO, 2011; WHO, 2013).

GlobalData’s epidemiological forecast projects a substantial increase in the prevalent cases of diagnosed type 2 diabetes in the markets covered. The number of prevalent type 2 diabetic cases is increasing around the world due to the actual increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes, along with the change in population demographics in the respective markets. Furthermore, GlobalData epidemiologists attribute the growth in prevalent cases to increased prevalence of risk factors associated with type 2 diabetes, such as obesity and physical inactivity, together with urbanization. GlobalData’s analysis shows that diabetes is undoubtedly one of the most challenging public health problems of the 21st century, with an increasing burden of the disease in all the markets and its strong association with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.



Scope


- The type 2 diabetes EpiCast Report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends for type 2 diabetes in the 10 major markets (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Brazil, India, and China).
- It includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast of the diagnosed prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes segmented by sex, age (in five-year increments beginning at age 20 years and ending at ages 85 years and older) and major comorbidities of type 2 diabetes (obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia) in the diagnosed prevalent pool.



Reasons to buy


- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global type 2 diabetes market.
- Quantify patient populations in the global type 2 diabetes market to improve product design, pricing, and launch plans.
- Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the age groups that present the best opportunities for type 2 diabetes in each of the markets covered.

Table Of Contents

Table of Contents

1 Table of CContents 4
1.1 List of Tables 6
1.2 List of Figures 7
2 Introduction 8
2.1 Catalyst 8
3 Epidemiology 9
3.1 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 9
3.1.1 Family history of diabetes is a strong predictor of type 2 diabetes 10
3.1.2 The risk of type 2 diabetes increases dramatically around age 50 12
3.1.3 The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increases as BMI increases 13
3.1.4 Gestational diabetes increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes later in life up to 10 times 14
3.1.5 Up to 75% of adults with type 2 diabetes have hypertension 15
3.1.6 Nearly all type 2 diabetics also have dyslipidemia 16
3.2 Global Trends 16
3.2.1 US 17
3.2.2 5EU 21
3.2.3 Japan 25
3.2.4 Brazil 26
3.2.5 China and India 27
3.3 Forecast Methodology 29
3.3.1 Sources Used 32
3.3.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 43
3.3.3 Sources Not Used 54
3.4 Epidemiology Forecast of Type 2 Diabetes (2012-2022) 55
3.4.1 Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes 55
3.4.2 Age-Specific Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes 57
3.4.3 Sex-Specific Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes 60
3.4.4 Age-Standardized Prevalence of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes 61
3.4.5 Overweight/Obesity among Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes 63
3.4.6 Hypertension among Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes 65
3.4.7 Dyslipidemia among Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes 67
3.5 Discussion 68
3.5.1 Limitations of the Analysis 71
3.5.2 Strengths of the Analysis 72
4 Appendix 74
4.1 Bibliography 74
4.2 About the Authors 82
4.2.1 Epidemiologists 82
4.2.2 Reviewers 82
4.2.3 Global Director of Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Analysis 84
4.2.4 Global Head of Healthcare 84
4.3 About GlobalData 85
4.4 About EpiCast 85
4.5 Disclaimer 86



List of Tables

Table 1: Risk Factors and Comorbidities of Type 2 Diabetes 10
Table 2: Prevalence (%) of Diabetes in Japan, 1964-1992 25
Table 3: Prevalence (%) of Diabetes in Japan, by Sex, 1997-2007 26
Table 4: Prevalence (%) of Diabetes in Japan, by Age, 2007 26
Table 5: Epidemiological Sources for Type 2 Diabetes Prevalence in the 10 Major Markets 30
Table 6: 10 Major Markets, Epidemiological Sources of Comorbidities: Overweight and Obesity 31
Table 7: Select Major Markets, Epidemiological Sources of Comorbidities: Hypertension 31
Table 8: Select Major Markets, Epidemiological Sources of Comorbidities: Dyslipidemia 32
Table 9: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes, Ages ?20 Years, Both Sexes, N (Millions), 2012-2022 56
Table 10: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes by Age, N (Millions), (Row %), 2012 58
Table 11: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes by Sex, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions) (Row %), 2012 60
Table 12: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Overweight/Obesity among Type 2 Diabetics, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 63
Table 13: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Hypertension among Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetics, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 65
Table 14: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia among Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetics, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 67



List of Figures

Figure 1: Crude and Age-Adjusted Incidence (per 1,000 population) of Diagnosed Diabetes in the US, Ages 18-79 Years, 1980-2011 18
Figure 2: Crude and Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diagnosed Diabetes in the US, Ages ?18 Years, 1980-2011 19
Figure 3: Age-Specific Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes in the US, 1980-2011 19
Figure 4: Age-Adjusted Prevalence of Diagnosed Diabetes in the US, by Sex, Ages ?18 Years, 1980-2011 20
Figure 5: Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diagnosed Diabetes, France, Germany and Italy, 1999-2007 23
Figure 6: Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes in Spain, 1987-2006, by Sex, 1987-2006 23
Figure 7: Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diagnosed Diabetes in the UK, 1996-2011 24
Figure 8: Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diagnosed Diabetes, UK, 1994-1998, by Sex 24
Figure 9: Urban-Rural Differences in the Age-Adjusted Prevalence (%) of Diabetes in China and India, 1992-2008 28
Figure 10: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Type 2 Diabetes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012-2022 56
Figure 11: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes, by Age, N (Millions), 2012 59
Figure 12: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes by Sex, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 61
Figure 13: All Markets, Age-Standardized Prevalence of Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes, Ages ?20 Years, Men and Women, %, 2012 62
Figure 14: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Overweight/Obesity among Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 64
Figure 15: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Hypertension among Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetes, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 66
Figure 16: All Markets, Prevalent Cases of Dyslipidemia among Diagnosed Type 2 Diabetics, Both Sexes, Ages ?20 Years, N (Millions), 2012 68

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