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  4. > Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 73 pages

BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts. Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.

Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment.

Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk team’s unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational risks.

The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

Table Of Contents

Romania Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, January 2016 . 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 . 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 . 8
SWOT 9
Commercial Banking .. 9
Political . 10
Economic ... 11
Operational Risk . 12
Industry Forecast .. 14
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index ... 18
Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . 18
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index . 19
Market Overview ... 20
Economic Analysis ... 20
Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Outlook 25
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014 . 25
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit and Loan/Asset and Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 26
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets and Client Loans and Client Deposits (USDbn) . 27
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 . 28
Competitive Landscape 29
Market Structure . 29
Protagonists .. 29
Table: Protagonists In Romania's Commercial Banking Sector . 29
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe . 29
List Of Banks . 30
Table: Banks Within Romania 30
Company Profile 32
Banca Comerciala Romana ... 32
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 33
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn) 34
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 34
Table: Key Ratios (%) 34
Banca Transilvania .. 35
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 36
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn) 37
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 37
Table: Key Ratios (%) 37
Bancpost 38
BRD-Groupe Societe Generale ... 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 41
Table: Balance Sheet (RONmn) 42
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) . 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) 42
Raiffeisen Bank ... 43
Regional Overview 45
Emerging Europe Overview ... 45
Global Industry Overview .. 52
Industry Forecast 52
The Reserves Penalty .. 52
Mixed Results So Far .. 55
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? ... 60
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent 61
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary 63
Demographic Forecast . 64
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Romania 1990-2025) 65
Table: Key Population Ratios (Romania 1990-2025) 65
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Romania 1990-2025) 66
Table: Population By Age Group (Romania 1990-2025) . 66
Table: Population By Age Group % (Romania 1990-2025) 67
Methodology .. 69
Industry Forecast Methodology 69
Sector-Specific Methodology 70
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 71
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators . 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 73

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