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  5. > Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 57 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Slovenia's upstream sector remains close to inexistent, with little to no oil or gas productionwithin our forecast period. While there is upside risk in the gas segment attributed to the AscentoperatedPetišovci tight gas project, the initiative faces continued regulatory and funding headwinds.Overall volumes are likely to be relatively modest in the case of project realisation, with imported Russiangas set to dominate supply for the foreseeable future.

The main trends and developments in Slovenia's oil and gas sector are:

- There is evidence of commercial gas deposits close to the Hungarian border that can be exploited forpower generation purposes. However, given project delays, we do not include it within our reserves orproduction forecast. The country's upstream reserves currently remain extremely limited.

- Slovenian natural gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast period, thanks to the lack ofupstream development in the country. While the long-delayed Petišovci project poses upside risk to ourforecast, we maintain our more modest outlook, given continued financial and regulatory delaysassociated with the initiative.

- In May 2016, it was reported that the country's Administrative Supreme Court withdrew the provisionalIPPC permit granted by the Slovenian Environment Agency in June 2015. The Court decision will delaythe company's long-term plan for the field to have gas treated and sold in Slovenia.

- Despite the IPCC application refusal, early production plans should not be under threat. The companyhad been studying two alternative options to market early gas production: selling the raw gas to aneighbouring and newly re-opened methanol plant, or outsourcing gas processing to a third party.However, in all cases Ascent highlights that for the project to move into full field development, the newprocessing plant (and thereby the IPCC award) remains crucial as the other two options would onlyenable limited uptakes of gas. As such, while these two options are viable for early production, a newprocessing plant is required for the production of higher volumes of gas and for bringing field productionto its full capacity.

Table Of Contents

Slovenia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Slovenia 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Upstream Production - Oil 10
Upstream Production - Gas 12
Latest Updates 12
Structural Trends 12
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2014-2019) 15
Table: Gas Production (Slovenia 2020-2025) 15
Refining 16
Refined Fuels Consumption 17
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2014-2019) 18
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Slovenia 2020-2025) 18
Gas Consumption 19
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2014-2019) 20
Table: Gas Consumption (Slovenia 2020-2025) 20
Trade - Oil 21
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2014-2019) 22
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Slovenia 2020-2025) 23
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 24
Latest Updates 24
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2014-2019) 25
Table: Gas Net Exports (Slovenia 2020-2025) 26
Industry Risk Reward Index 27
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 27
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 27
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 28
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 28
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 30
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 31
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 33
Slovenia - Risk/Reward Index 35
Slovenia Upstream Score - Overview 35
Slovenia Upstream Score - Rewards 35
Slovenia Upstream Score - Risks 35
Slovenia Downstream Score - Overview 36
Market Overview 37
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 37
Oil Refineries 37
Table: Refineries In Slovenia 37
Service Stations 37
Oil Storage Facilities 37
Oil Terminals/Ports 37
Oil Pipelines 38
Gas Pipelines 38
Competitive Landscape 40
Competitive Landscape Summary 40
Table: Key Downstream Players 41
Regional Overview 42
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 42
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 42
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 43
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 44
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 45
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 46
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 47
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 48
Glossary 50
Table: Glossary Of Terms 50
Methodology 52
Industry Forecast Methodology 52
Source 54
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 54
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 56
Table: Weighting 57

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