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Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • June 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 101 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have recently downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing anycontribution in growth from shale gas. The slow pace of exploration is unlikely to pick up in the comingyears, tempering the development of below-ground understanding and optimised drilling and hydraulicfracturing processes required for Poland's challenging geology. Conventional gas exploration anddevelopments will slowly boost gas production over our forecast period.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Poland's oil and gas sector are:

- We have downgraded Poland's long-term gas production outlook, removing any contribution in growthfrom shale gas. Exploration for unconventional gas in Poland has come to a near standstill and is unlikelyto pick up within the next few years. Only four shale gas exploration wells have been drilled in 2015,down from a high of 24 wells in 2012 and bringing the total number of shale gas exploration well inPoland to 72 wells since 2010.

- Highlighting the continued morose exploration scene, PGNiG announced in May 2016 it will endexploration for shale gas if a 'last chance' well does not yield promising results in June. This would be adeath blow to shale exploration efforts in Poland (at least for the coming years) given PGNiG is the lastlarge company still exploring for shale gas in Poland.

- While we no longer include shale gas production in our Poland gas production forecast, we continue tohighlight the potential of conventional gas exploration and the role it has in boosting Poland's output, ashighlighted by San Leon's recent Rawicz discovery, to be developed within the next one to two years.Conventional developments in Poland will very slowly increase Poland's gas production over our forecastperiod.

- We maintain our low gas consumption growth forecast for Poland, as we become increasingly bearish onthe country's switch to gas in the power sector. Concern about energy security, the unlikelihood ofdomestic shale gas production within our forecast period and concerns of rising electricity bills providelittle incentive for phasing out cheap coal-fired power generation and a switch to gas-powered generation.

Table Of Contents

Poland Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Poland 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Upstream Exploration 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Oil 12
Gas 13
Shale Exploration Grinds To A Halt 15
Table: Poland Shale Gas Exploration Licences 15
Upstream Projects 20
Table: Poland - Major Upstream Projects 20
Upstream Production - Oil 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends 21
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2014-2019) 23
Table: Oil Production (Poland 2020-2025) 23
Upstream Production - Gas 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trend 24
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2014-2019) 27
Table: Gas Production (Poland 2020-2025) 27
Refining 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2014-2019) 30
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Poland 2020-2025) 30
Refined Fuels Consumption 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Products Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) 33
Gas Consumption 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends 34
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2014-2019) 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Poland 2020-2025) 37
Trade - Oil 38
Crude Oil 38
Latest Updates 38
Structural Trends 38
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 40
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 40
Refined Fuels 40
Latest Updates 40
Structural Trends 40
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 42
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 43
Latest Updates 43
Structural Trends 43
Table: Poland - Alternatives To Direct Russian Imports Over Coming Years 46
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2014-2019) 50
Table: Gas Net Exports (Poland 2020-2025) 50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 51
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index 51
Table: CEE: High Risk, Low Reward 51
Table: CEE Upstream, Downstream And Overall Risk/Reward Index 52
Upstream: China Still The Target Market 52
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Index 54
Downstream: Turkish STAR Only Bright Spot In Weak Market 55
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Index 57
Poland - Risk/Reward Index 59
Poland Upstream Index - Rewards 59
Poland Upstream Index - Risks 59
Poland Downstream Index - Overview 60
Market Overview 61
Poland Energy Market Overview 61
Overview/State Role 61
Fiscal And Licensing Regime Up To 2016 61
Table: Poland Fiscal and Licensing Regime 61
Shale Gas Licensing, Regulation And Taxation 62
Licensing Rounds 66
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 67
Oil Refineries 67
Table: Downstream Projects 67
Service Stations 67
Oil Terminals/Ports 67
Oil Pipelines 68
LNG Terminals 71
Gas Storage Facilities 72
Table: Gas Storage Facilities In Poland 72
Gas Pipelines 72
Competitive Landscape 76
Competitive Landscape Summary 76
Table: Key Players - Poland Oil And Gas Sector 77
Table: Key Upstream Player 78
Table: Key Downstream Players 78
Company Profile 79
PKN Orlen 79
Company Overview 79
Latest Company Updates 80
Table: Major Downstream Assets in Poland 80
Table: Key Financial Data (PLNmn) 80
Grupa Lotos 81
Company Overview 81
Latest Company Updates 81
Table: Major Downstream Asset in Poland 82
Table: Key Financial Data ('000PLN) 82
PGNiG 83
Company Overview 83
Latest Updates 83
Table: Major Upstream Assets in Poland 84
Regional Overview 86
Central And Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Regional Overview 86
Oil Production: Oil Powerhouses Falter On Weak Prices 86
Oil Consumption: Short-Term Weakness As Russia Struggles 87
Refining Capacity: Modernisation Key To Competing 88
Natural Gas Production: Gas Ramp-Up Demand Dependent 89
Table: Central Asia-China Gas Pipeline Expansions 90
Gas Consumption: Demand Falters On Struggling Economies 91
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Oil and Gas Production and Consumption, Refining Capacity and Trade 92
Glossary 94
Table: Glossary Of Terms 94
Methodology 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Source 98
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 98
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 100
Table: Weighting 101

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