Colombia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2009

Colombia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2009

BMI follows a rigorous approach to analysing commercial banking sectors around the world. We have
collated data relevant to national commercial banking sectors that have been published by central banks,
regulators and/or trade associations, as well as basic information concerning individual market
participants.
We have also considered BMI’s current views on the economic outlook for the country in question. Many
aspects have been – and continue to be – brought together in a systematic way through our proprietary
Commercial Bank Business Environment Ratings (CBBER), which facilitate cross-country comparisons.
In Q309 BMI has continued to extend the scope of its commercial banking report series, both in terms of
the depth in which individual states are assessed and the number of banking systems analysed.
Enhanced Global And Regional Context
We have expanded our coverage of the global and regional banking sectors to ensure that developments
in individual banking are placed firmly within the context of neighbouring and linked markets. Separate
regional overviews have been provided for emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and
sub-Saharan Africa. The aim is to flag up pan-regional developments, highlight countries that stand
outside regional trends and isolate potential systemic risks.
Expanded Universe Of Commercial Banking Sectors
This quarter we are launching 13 new country reports. Building on our expertise analysing emerging
market economies, the focus is on enhancing coverage of key developed states (France, Switzerland,
Austria, Italy, Canada, Australia), emerging Europe (Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia), Asia (Sri Lanka,
Bangladesh) and Latin America (Peru). This will take the total number of countries covered to 59.
Improved Company Profiles
In Q209 we included company profiles in our reports for the first time. This quarter we are looking to
include more balance sheet data, and also expand the existing company profiles.

Executive Summary 5
Table: Latest Actual Data (COPbn)...... 5
Table: Latest Actual Data (US$bn)....... 5
Table: Latest Key Indicators At February 2009.... 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2009-2013 (%) ..... 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2009 ....... 6
Table: Projected Levels, 2008-2013 (COPbn) ...... 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) .. 6
Overview Of Colombia’s Commercial Banking Sector.7
SWOT Analysis8
Colombia Commercial Banking SWOT. 8
Colombia Political SWOT..... 9
Colombia Economic SWOT 10
Colombia Business Environment SWOT ..... 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating.12
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings ....... 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Analysis..... 12
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology ...... 15
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 16
Economic Analysis – Global Banking Sector Outlook.......17
Table: Client Loans, 2007-2013 (% Change y-o-y) .... 17
Table: Loan-Deposit Ratio, 2007-2013....... 19
Regional Outlook...21
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2009 . 21
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2009 .. 21
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn) 22
Table: Comparison of Per Capita Deposits, Late 2008 (US$) ..... 22
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields..... 23
Commercial Bank Sector Outlook 24
Latin America Banking Overview .26
Macroeconomic Activity ..... 30
Table: Colombia – Economic Activity, 2006-2013...... 33
Fiscal Policy....... 33
Monetary Policy.. 34
Market Structure....37
Protagonists 37
Table: Protagonists In Colombia’s Commercial Banking Sector. 37
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe....... 38
List Of Banks ...... 38
Table: State-Owned Bank And Other Banks Established In Colombia 38
Company Profiles..39
Bancolombia....... 39
Table: Key Statistics For Bancolombia (COPmn) ...... 40
BBVA Colombia.. 41
Table: Key Statistics For BBVA Colombia (COPmn) . 42
Banco Santander Colombia 43
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Santander Colombia (COPmn). 43
Grupo Aval: Banco de Bogotá; Banco Popular; Banco AV Villas; Banco de Occidente..... 44
Table: Key Statistics For Banco de Bogotá (COPmn) 45
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Popular (COPmn) ... 45
Table: Key Statistics For Banco AV Villas (COPmn) . 46
Table: Key Statistics For Banco de Occiidente (COPmn)... 46
Banco Davivienda....... 47
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Davivienda (COPmn) ...... 48
Methodology..49
Basis Of Projections ... 50
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 50
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale.... 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators .. 53