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Central America Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 130 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The region's telecoms markets are increasingly competitive, with four out of eight CentralAmerican countries having introduced mobile number portability. In several Central American markets,high mobile penetration rates have significantly slowed subscriber growth. However, markets such asNicaragua offer considerable growth potential. Government intervention remains a problem in someregional markets such as Guatemala, where it is seemingly increasing. Across the region, data-driven 3G/4G services offer strong future potential and the region's largest operators are investing heavily into newinfrastructure and technologies for such technological uptake.

Key Data

- We have revised our forecasts for the Guatemalan mobile market and hold the view that a muchslower growth will be seen throughout our forecast period to 2020. Continued growth will also becounterbalanced by the deduction of inactive prepaid accounts from operators' reported total.

- In El Salvador, which has one of the region's highest mobile penetration rates, the competitiveenvironment is strong, but there are signs that subscriber growth is slowing down. We expect the trendof steady but moderate growth to continue throughout our forecast period to 2020. Operators,however, will have new opportunities in 3G and 4G services and offering mobile data products to theirsubscribers.

- The high mobile penetration rate in Honduras suggests there is a high proportion of multiple SIMowners and inactive subscriptions that were taken up due to operator promotions. However, we believeoperators will focus on driving up revenues from existing subscribers and focus less on acquiring newones. This is amid an increasing focus on 4G and increasing availability of 3G and lower costsmartphones.

Table Of Contents

Central America Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 9
SWOT 11
Industry Forecast 13
Belize 13
Latest Updates 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Belize 2013-2020) 15
Costa Rica 16
Structural Trends 16
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Costa Rica 2013-2020) 18
El Salvador 19
Latest Updates 19
Structural Trends 19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (El Salvador 2013-2020) 21
Guatemala 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends 22
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Guatemala 2013-2020) 24
Honduras 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends 25
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Honduras 2013-2020) 27
Nicaragua 28
Structural Trends 28
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Nicaragua 2013-2020) 30
Panama 31
Structural Trends 31
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Panama 2013-2020) 32
Industry Risk Reward Index 33
Latin America Risk/Reward Index 33
Table: Latin America - Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q3 2016 35
Market Overview 37
Belize 37
Market Drivers And Trends 37
Mobile 37
Table: Belize Telemedia Ltd Subscribers ('000) 38
Table: Belize - Mobile Market, December 2015 40
Wireline Voice and Broadband 40
Costa Rica 43
Market Drivers And Trends 43
Recent Developments 43
Mobile 43
Table: Mobile Market, June 2015 48
Wireline Voice and Broadband 48
Table: Fixed Internet Market Share, 2012 51
El Salvador 53
Market Drivers and Trends 53
Mobile 53
Table: Tigo a Clear Market Leader, But Claro Catching Up 54
Wireline Voice and Broadband 55
Guatemala 57
Market Drivers And Trends 57
Mobile 57
Table: Tigo Has a Strong Hold on the Market, December 2015 58
Wireline Voice and Broadband 59
Table: Claro Dominates the Fixed-Line Market, December 2013 59
Honduras 60
Market Drivers And Trends 60
Mobile 60
Table: Tigo and Claro Fight for Market Dominance, December 2015 62
Wireline Voice and Broadband 63
Table: Fixed-Line Usage is in Terminal Decline, 2007-2012 ('000) 63
Nicaragua 64
Market Drivers And Trends 64
Mobile 64
Table: Close Competition for Market Dominance, June 2015 66
Wireline Voice and Broadband 66
Broadband 67
Table: Clear is The Clear Leader in the Internet Market (%) 69
Panama 70
Market Drivers and Trends 70
Mobile 70
Table: Three Operators Fight For Market Dominance, June 2015 72
Wireline Voice and Broadband 73
Table: Fixed-Line Market, 2007-2013 ('000) 74
Regulatory Development 77
Table: Central America's Telecoms Regulators 77
Belize 77
Costa Rica 77
El Salvador 78
Guatemala 79
Honduras 80
Nicaragua 80
Panama 81
Company Profile 82
America Móvil (Claro) 82
Millicom International Cellular 85
Demographic Forecast 89
Demographic Outlook 89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Belize 1990-2025) 90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Belize 1990-2025) 90
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Belize 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group (Belize 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Belize 1990-2025) 92
Demographic Outlook 94
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 95
Table: Key Population Ratios (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 95
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 96
Table: Population By Age Group (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 96
Table: Population By Age Group % (Costa Rica 1990-2025) 97
Demographic Outlook 99
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Guatemala 1990-2025) 100
Table: Key Population Ratios (Guatemala 1990-2025) 100
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Guatemala 1990-2025) 101
Table: Population By Age Group (Guatemala 1990-2025) 101
Table: Population By Age Group % (Guatemala 1990-2025) 102
Demographic Outlook 104
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Honduras 1990-2025) 105
Table: Key Population Ratios (Honduras 1990-2025) 105
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Honduras 1990-2025) 106
Table: Population By Age Group (Honduras 1990-2025) 106
Table: Population By Age Group % (Honduras 1990-2025) 107
Demographic Outlook 109
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 110
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 110
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 111
Table: Population By Age Group (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 111
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nicaragua 1990-2025) 112
Demographic Outlook 114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Panama 1990-2025) 115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Panama 1990-2025) 115
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Panama 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group (Panama 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Panama 1990-2025) 117
Demographic Outlook 118
Table: Population Headline Indicators (El Salvador 1990-2025) 120
Table: Key Population Ratios (El Salvador 1990-2025) 120
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (El Salvador 1990-2025) 121
Table: Population By Age Group (El Salvador 1990-2025) 121
Table: Population By Age Group % (El Salvador 1990-2025) 122
Glossary 124
Table: Glossary Of Terms 124
Methodology 126
Industry Forecast Methodology 126
Sources 128
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 128
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 129
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 130

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