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Iraq Telecommunications Report Q3 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 62 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We have made some forecast revisions in our Q316 report update to account for some majorchanges in the Iraqi telecommunications landscape. The mobile market contracted by over 10% in 2015,largely driven by IS activity and assaults in various parts of the country. However, we believe that as thegovernment forces ramp up their attacks and look to drive IS out of its controlled zones, there will be aperiod of further mobile and telecom sector losses in 2016 and 2017. We are forecasting the market toreturn to growth from 2018 onwards as our new forecast is predicated on the fact that the governmentliberation of Tikrit, Fallujah and neighbouring villages around Mosul will eventually lead to strongermobile uptake. We note that in liberated cities such as Tikrit operators are beginning to report animprovement in ARPU and relatively better operating conditions. Political instability, compounded withlower oil prices, is also straining the consumer's ability to spend. Despite these challenges, we are positiveon the long-term growth potential of mobile and 3G services, but remain sceptical on the substantial uptakeof Mobile Financial Services, given regional trends in the Middle East and North Africa.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

- The mobile market contracted by 10.2% y-o-y in Q415 as the security situation continues to take its toll.The operators lost 3.29mn subscribers in 2015 and another 122,000 in Q116.

- Both Zain and Asiacell's revenues show some signs of recovery in Q116 with the rate of losses slowingdown. Take up of 3G services throughout 2016 may help to further stabilise ARPUs over the comingquarters. The take-up of Mobile Financial Services, launched by both Zain and Asiacell may howeverexperience challenges.

Table Of Contents

Iraq Telecommunications Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Latest Updates and Industry Developments 8
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Latest Updates 11
Structural Trends 11
Table: Telecoms Sector - Historical Data and Forecasts (Iraq 2013-2020) 15
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 17
Middle East and North Africa Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: MENA Telecoms Risk/Reward Index, Q316 19
Industry Risk/Reward Index 20
Market Overview 22
Market Drivers and Trends 22
Mobile 22
Mobile Operator Data 28
Wireline Voice and Broadband 28
Regulatory Development 31
Regulatory Overview 31
Table: Iraq - Regulatory Bodies and Their Responsibilities 31
Competitive Landscape 35
Table: Key Players Iraq Telecoms Market 35
Table: Selected Operators' Revenues (USDmn) 35
Table: Iraq Mobile Market Overview 36
Table: Zain Iraq 36
Table: Asiacell 37
Table: Korek 39
Company Profile 40
Asiacell 40
Iraqi Telecommunication and Post Company (ITPC) 44
Zain Iraq 47
Demographic Forecast 51
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Iraq 1990-2025) 52
Table: Key Population Ratios (Iraq 1990-2025) 52
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Iraq 1990-2025) 53
Table: Population By Age Group (Iraq 1990-2025) 53
Table: Population By Age Group % (Iraq 1990-2025) 54
Glossary 56
Table: Glossary Of Terms 56
Methodology 58
Industry Forecast Methodology 58
Sources 60
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 60
Table: Risk/Reward Index Indicators 61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 62

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