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United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 172 pages

BMI View:

The US will lead gains in non-OPEC crude oil production over the next decade despite the fall in oil prices. High growth rates seen in recent years will moderate through our 10-year forecast period, reflecting abrupt depletion rates in shale oil fields, a glut in the domestic market for light sweet crude and lower oil prices dampening a portion of production. Fuels consumption growth will temper over the course of the next decade as energy efficiency gains take root. In the gas market, we forecast a ramp-up in production as new LNG export facilities and petrochemical plants come online.
- The more pronounced spending pullback by North American oil producers supports our view that a supply-side correction of the market will primarily be led by this region in 2016. The US will witness the most dramatic decline, supporting a strengthening of international benchmark prices beginning in H216.
- A reduction in the borrowing base available to US exploration and production (E&P) companies following the spring redeterminations does not pose a major liquidity risk to the sector. Leveraged companies with highly utilised borrowing bases and poorer asset quality are at higher risk of default.
- O&G debt issuance in the United States in the year-to-date signals that the risks of a sector-wide credit crunch have been overstated. Liquidity risks will remain contained to a small pool of highly-leveraged
producers and will not spill over to the O&G sector more broadly. With the market pricing in a more systemic credit risk, we believe the low corporate bond pricing does not accurately reflect the underlying fundamentals of the sector.
- Weakness in crude prices will spur greater resourcefulness on the part of shale oil producers, with companies targeting uncompleted well inventories, identifying refrac opportunities and bringing in new partners. New drilling will be limited in 2016, supporting our downbeat production trend for the year.

Table Of Contents

United States Oil and Gas Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (United States 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Oil and Gas SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast .. 11
Upstream Exploration .. 11
Latest Updates ... 11
Structural Trends ... 11
Upstream Projects ... 17
Table: United States - Major Upstream Projects . 17
Upstream Production - Oil 31
Latest Updates ... 31
Structural Trends ... 31
Table: Oil Production (United States 2014-2019) 42
Table: Oil Production (United States 2020-2025) 42
Upstream Production - Gas ... 43
Latest Updates ... 43
Structural Trends ... 43
Table: Gas Production (United States 2014-2019) . 46
Table: Gas Production (United States 2020-2025) . 46
Refining . 47
Latest Updates ... 47
Structural Trends ... 47
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2014-2019) 51
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (United States 2020-2025) 51
Refined Fuels Consumption ... 52
Latest Updates ... 52
Structural Trends ... 52
Table: Final Renewable Fuel Volumes . 58
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2014-2019) 59
Table: Refined Products Consumption (United States 2020-2025) 60
Gas Consumption 61
Latest Updates ... 61
Structural Trends ... 61
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2014-2019) . 65
Table: Gas Consumption (United States 2020-2025) . 65
Trade - Oil . 66
Crude Oils: Latest Updates .. 66
Structural Trends ... 66
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2014-2020) 68
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (United States 2020-2025) 69
Refined Products: Latest Updates .. 69
Structural Trends ... 69
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2014-2019) 71
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (United States 2020-2025) 71
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) 72
Latest Updates ... 72
Structural Trends ... 73
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2014-2019) 77
Table: Gas Net Exports (United States 2020-2025) 77
Industry Risk/Reward Index . 78
North America And Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index ... 78
Table: North America and Western Europe Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Index . 78
Upstream Rankings: Resource Base Will Keep North America Well Ahead 79
North America Open To Investment, At The Right Price . 79
Resource Limitations Take Toll On Western Europe . 80
Table: North America and Western Europe Upstream Risk/Reward Index 82
Downstream Rankings: US Widens Its Lead 82
Table: North America and Western Europe Downstream Risk/Reward Index . 84
Unites States - Risk/Reward Index ... 85
Upstream Index . 85
Downstream Index . 86
Market Overview ... 87
United States Energy Market Overview 87
Licensing And Regulation 87
Regulatory Policy ... 90
Licensing Rounds ... 96
Table: Total BOEM Acreage To Be Offered 2012-2017 . 96
Table: 2016-2017 Lease Sale Schedule . 97
International Energy Relations . 98
Table: Key Upstream Players 100
Oil And Gas Infrastructure .. 103
Oil Refineries .. 103
Table: New US Refineries 105
Table: 2014 Refinery Expansions 108
Table: Refineries In the US . 109
Service Stations ... 114
Oil Storage Facilities 114
Oil Terminals .. 115
Oil Pipelines ... 116
Table: US Crude Oil Pipelines Online/Planned, 2012-2014 116
LNG Terminals 120
Table: LNG Terminals In the US 120
Table: US LNG Export Terminal Projects . 125
Gas Storage Facilities ... 126
Gas Pipelines .. 126
Table: New Natural Gas Pipelines 128
Competitive Landscape .. 132
Competitive Landscape Summary 132
Table: Key Upstream Players . 135
Table: Key Downstream Players 135
Company Profile .. 136
BP America .. 136
Table: Table - Key Assets in the US . 137
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) . 138
Chevron ... 139
Table: Table - Major Assets in the US . 140
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) . 140
ConocoPhillips . 142
Table: Table - Major Upstream Assets in the US 143
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) . 143
ExxonMobil .. 145
Table: Table - Key Upstream Assets in the US 146
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) . 147
Shell USA . 148
Table: Table - Major Assets in the US . 150
Table: Table - Key Financial Metrics (USDmn) . 150
Regional Overview .. 152
North America And Western Europe Oil And Gas Regional Overview .. 152
Table: North America - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 . 162
Table: Western Europe - Key Regional Indicators, 2014-2025 . 163
Glossary ... 165
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 165
Methodology 167
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 167
Source ... 169
Risk/Reward Index Methodology . 169
Table: Bmi's Oil and Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index 171
Table: Weighting 172

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