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  4. > Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • July 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 95 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Indonesia's agriculture holds a great amount of promise and sub-sectors such as livestock,sugar and palm oil will experience significant growth opportunities. However, the country's goal to becomeself-sufficient in a large number of commodities is overly ambitious in light of the robust outlook for foodand drink consumption. Agricultural production will struggle to expand in the coming years amidst scarceagricultural land, the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology,small-scale farmers. While we believe that Indonesia will be able to reduce its dependence on rice importsin the coming years, sugar, corn and beef self-sufficiency are far-fetched.

BMI Key Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 3.1% to 335,000 tonnes. Production growthwill slightly accelerate from 2018 onwards, as private grinders are slowly developing programmes toimprove plantation management and foster best practices. Until then output will see weak growth.

- Palm oil consumption growth between 2015 and 2020: 33.8% to 11.2mn tonnes. Relatively recentrefining and biodiesel policies (B15 mandate) will continue to inflate domestic consumption of palm oilin the coming years.

- Sugar production growth between 2014/15 and 2019/20: 19.2% to 2.5mn tonnes. The strong growthrate is mainly due to base effects, as production declined in 2014/15. Moderate expansion in plantations,improved yields and higher sucrose content in cane will drive growth. However, it will be held back bypoor cane recovery rates, harvest management and infrastructure issues.

- BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD141.2bn in 2016 (up from USD129.3bn in 2015;forecast to grow annually by 6.8% on average between 2016 and 2020).

- 2016 real GDP growth: 5.2%, up from 4.8% in 2015 and compared with the 2011-2015 year averagegrowth of 5.5%; forecast to grow annually by 5.8% on average between 2016 and 2020.

- 2016 consumer price index: 4.2%, down from 5.9% in 2015 and compared with the 2011-2015 yearaverage growth of 6.0%; forecast to grow annually by 4.8% on average between 2016 and 2020.

Table Of Contents

Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Indonesia - Rice Production And Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Structural Trends 13
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 16
Grains Outlook 17
Latest Updates 17
Table: Indonesia - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 18
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Indonesia, 2012-2020) 22
Sugar Outlook 23
Latest Updates 23
Table: Indonesia - Sugar Production And Consumption Outlook 23
Table: Risks To Outlook 24
Structural Trends 24
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 27
Livestock Outlook 28
Latest Updates 28
Table: Indonesia - Livestock Production and Consumption Outlook 29
Table: Risks To Outlook 29
Structural Trends 29
Table: Livestock Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 34
Coffee Outlook 36
Latest Updates 36
Table: Indonesia - Coffee Production and Consumption Outlook 36
Table: Risks To Outlook 36
Structural Trends 37
Table: Coffee Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 40
Cocoa Outlook 41
Latest Updates 41
Table: Indonesia - Cocoa Production And Consumption Outlook 41
Table: Risk To Outlook 42
Structural Trends 42
Table: Cocoa Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2012-2020) 46
Palm Oil Outlook 47
Latest Updates 47
Table: Indonesia - Palm Oil Production And Consumption Outlook 48
Table: Indonesia - Risks To Palm Oil Outlook 48
Structural Trends 49
Table: Indonesia - Minimum Wage ('000 IDR) and Palm Oil Production By Province, 2012-2016 52
Table: Palm Oil Production and Consumption (Indonesia 2013-2020) 54
Commodities Price Analysis 55
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 55
Table: SELECT COMMODITIES - PERFORMANCE AND BMI FORECASTS 55
Upstream Analysis 57
Asia GM Outlook 57
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 61
Asia Machinery Outlook 63
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 68
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 70
Downstream Analysis 76
Food 76
Latest Updates 76
Structural Trends 77
Table: Food Sales (Indonesia 2015-2020) 79
Regional Overview 82
Competitive Landscape 88
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies 88
Demographic Forecast 89
Demographic Outlook 89
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Indonesia 1990-2025) 90
Table: Key Population Ratios (Indonesia 1990-2025) 90
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Indonesia 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group (Indonesia 1990-2025) 91
Table: Population By Age Group % (Indonesia 1990-2025) 92
Methodology 94
Industry Forecast Methodology 94
Sector-Specific Methodology 95

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