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South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 99 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We maintain a subdued outlook for many industries within South Africa's agricultural sector.
Production will increase year-on-year in the 2015/16 season, but for sugar, wheat, corn and barley this will merely represent a rebound after severe declines in 2014/15 caused by drought. Grain production growth will be slow over the coming years due to low prices, while yields will be constrained due to the weak rand, weather volatility and lower farm incomes. The sugar sector will remain relatively stagnant with production growth rates below 1% annually. That said, the livestock sector will see more positive trends in production growth owing to a multitude of factors, such as increasing demand and a higher population with more discretionary spending power. We believe that the country's main agribusiness companies could reap benefits if drought conditions do not deteriorate and cattle and poultry feed prices are not severely
impacted.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production contraction 2013/14 to 2018/19: 0.4% to 2.3mn tonnes. Much lower global sugar prices, relative to the last few years, will lead to a decline in South African sugar output. We believe that production from Brazil will keep the global market well supplied.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness 9
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Sugar Outlook 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 14
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 17
Rice Outlook 18
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2019) 18
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 21
Livestock Outlook 22
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 23
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 24
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 26
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 26
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 26
Grains Outlook 28
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (South Africa 2014-2019) 29
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 33
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 33
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (South Africa 2009-2014) 33
Featured Analysis 35
African Agriculture: Lower Growth Over Coming Years 35
Table: African Union CAADP Objectives To 2025 36
Table: Indonesia - Select Inward Cocoa Investment Projects 41
Table: Most Popular Brands Are Foreign - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In South Africa In 2014 (%) 44
Commodities Price Analysis 47
Monthly Softs Strategy 47
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States 51
Monthly Grains Strategy 52
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel) 53
Upstream Analysis 55
Africa GM Outlook 55
Table: Farm Size By Region 58
Africa Machinery Outlook 61
Table: How Africa Compares With Other Regions 61
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012) 66
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 66
Downstream Analysis 72
Mass Grocery Retail 72
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 73
Drink 73
Alcoholic Drinks 73
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 74
Soft Drinks 75
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 76
Hot Drinks 77
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 78
Food 79
Food Consumption 79
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 80
Confectionery 80
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 80
Meat 81
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019) 82
Other Prepared Foods 82
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2012-2019) 83
Oils and Fats 83
Dairy 83
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2012-2019) 84
Regional Overview 85
Middle East and Africa Regional Overview 85
Table: Foreign Investment In Africa's Palm Oil Sector 88
Competitive Landscape 92
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies 92
Demographic Forecast 93
Demographic Outlook 93
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 94
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 94
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 95
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 95
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 96
Methodology 98
Industry Forecast Methodology 98
Sector-Specific Methodology 99

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