South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 98 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
We hold a positive view on the South African agricultural sector and see particular growth
potential in the grain and livestock sectors. Both sectors' growth will be boosted by regional export demand. The sugar sector also presents interesting growth opportunities, mainly thanks to renewed investment and improved technologies. Overall, the country's grain and livestock producers have been hit by recent hikes in grain prices and subdued corn supply on the domestic market. Margins have plummeted, and foreign competition for exports has made it even more difficult for producers to stay afloat. However, the recovery is under way. We believe the country's main companies, AFGRI, Rainbow Chicken and Astral Foods, can only see profitability bounce from current subdued levels.

Key Forecasts
- Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 21.9% to 2.4mn tonnes. This is based on our view that macroeconomic fundamentals, together with the increasing use of sugar for biofuels, will have a positive impact on sugar production levels over the long term.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Agribusiness Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness . 9
Business Environment .. 11
Industry Forecast .. 12
Sugar Outlook . 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018) . 12
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013) . 15
Rice Outlook 16
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (South Africa 2012-2018). 17
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013). 18
Livestock Outlook 18
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)..20
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)20
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018). 20
Table: Poultry Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)..24
Table: Pork Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)24
Table: Beef Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013). 24
Grain Outlook . 25
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018) . 26
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018)26
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (South Africa 2013-2018) 27
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013) . 31
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013)31
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (South Africa 2008-2013) 31
Commodities Price Analysis . 33
Monthly Grains Strategy 33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 41
Monthly Softs Strategy .. 41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 50
Upstream Analysis 51
Africa Machinery Outlook . 51
Table: Number Of Tractors Per 1,000ha Of Arable Land. . 51
Table: Farm Size By Region (2012)..55
Table: South Africa - New Tractor Sales Current Market Share In 2014 (%) . 56
Africa GM Outlook .. 57
Table: Farm Size By Region.. . 61
Africa Fertiliser Outlook 63
Downstream Analysis 70
Food . 70
Food Consumption . 70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018) 71
Confectionery 71
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2011-2018).. . 72
Canned Food 73
Meat 73
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2013-2018).. . 73
Other Prepared Foods 74
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (South Africa 2013-2018).. 74
Oils and Fats 74
Dairy 75
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018).75
Drink 76
Alcoholic Drinks 76
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018). . 77
Soft Drinks 78
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) . 79
Hot Drinks 80
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018). 81
Mass Grocery Retail 82
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (South Africa 2013-2018) 83
Regional Overview 84
Competitive Landscape 91
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies.. 91
Demographic Forecast . 92
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)93
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total).94
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020. 95
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020.. 95
Methodology .. 96
Industry Forecast Methodology 96
Sector-Specific Methodology 97

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