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Turkey Food and Drink Report Q4 2015

  • October 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 125 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: Turkey is facing some short to medium-term economic headwinds that are weighing on theoutlook for private consumption. In particular, high inflation and the depreciating lira have led to consumerconfidence hitting lows not seen since 2009. The inflationary pressure will be most felt on food prices whichare expected to increase as a result. However, for the most part, we do not expect this to drastically impactfood & drink consumption as the economic slowdown will be most felt in credit purchases. In mass groceryretail, rising incomes among the middle class, rapid urbanisation and investment in the MGR sector willdrive the formalisation of the food retail industry in Turkey over the coming years.

The discount format willgreatly benefit from MGR growth, as food spending will continue to account for a large share of householdspending while consumers remain highly price-conscious.We believe that the country offers one of the best global opportunities in terms of consumer expendituregrowth. Turkey's large and youthful population will experience greater income growth as our forecastperiod to 2019 develops, which will help drive food and drink consumption. Multinational fast-movingconsumer goods and retail firms are investing in the country at an increasing pace. We see the ongoingformalisation of the food, drink and mass grocery retail industries forming the backbone of our bullish longtermview on Turkey.

Table Of Contents

Turkey Food and Drink Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Food 9
Drink 11
Mass Grocery Retail 13
Industry Forecast 15
Consumer Outlook 15
Food 18
Food Consumption 18
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) 19
Confectionery 19
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) 20
Canned Food 21
Processed Foods 21
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 22
Fish 22
Snack Foods 23
Table: Jams and Jellies Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecast (Turkey 2014-2019) 23
Dairy 23
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 24
Drink 25
Alcoholic Drinks 25
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 26
Soft Drinks 27
Table: Soft Drink Value and Volume Sales- Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2012-2019) 28
Hot Drinks 29
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 29
Mass Grocery Retail 30
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 31
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format 32
Trade 33
Table: Trade Balance - Historical Data and Forecasts (Turkey 2014-2019) 33
Macroeconomic Forecast 34
Economic Analysis 34
Table: Economic Activity (Turkey 2010-2019) 42
Industry Risk Reward Index 43
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Index 43
Table: Central and Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Q415 44
Turkey Risk/Reward Index 48
Market Overview 50
Food 50
Food Consumption 50
Food Production 50
Confectionery 51
Agriculture 51
Organic Agriculture 53
Halal Food 53
Drink 54
Alcoholic Drinks 54
Soft Drinks 56
Table: Soft Drinks Sales Breakdown In Turkey 57
Hot Drinks 57
Mass Grocery Retail 58
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Turkey 2006-2015) 61
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (Turkey 2006-2015) 61
Industry Trends And Developments 62
Food 62
Key Industry Trends And Developments 62
Drink 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments 66
Mass Grocery Retail 69
Key Industry Trends And Developments 69
Competitive Landscape 72
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Food and Drink Industry 72
Table: Key Players In Turkey's Mass Grocery Retail Sector 73
Company Profile 74
Ãœlker Group 74
Nestle Turkey 76
Anadolu Efes 79
Coca-Cola ?çecek 82
Migros Turk 84
B?M 87
Sabanc? Holding 90
Tesco Kipa 92
Global Industry Overview 95
Table: Australia, Uk And Usa Estimated Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Scores - Food Retail Industry 98
Table: Boston Beer Company, Ab Inbev, Heineken And Sabmiller - Selected Trailing Return And Efficiency Ratios 106
Table: Food and Drink Core Views - Q215 Roundup 112
Demographic Forecast 114
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Turkey 1990-2025) 115
Table: Key Population Ratios (Turkey 1990-2025) 115
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Turkey 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group (Turkey 1990-2025) 116
Table: Population By Age Group % (Turkey 1990-2025) 117
Glossary 119
Food and Drink 119
Mass Grocery Retail 119
Methodology 121
Industry Forecast Methodology 121
Sector-Specific Methodology 122
Sources 122
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 123
Table: Food and Drink Risk/Reward Index Indicators 124
Table: Weighting 125

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