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  4. > South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016

  • May 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 77 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI’s commercial banking forecast series covers 62 countries accounting for 80% of global GDP. Each report, researched at source, features BMI’s independent assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2017 for the commercial banking sector in each market. Using its expertise in both country risk and financial markets analysis, BMI has created exclusive models to forecast a wealth of key variables on the commercial banking sector. Historic and forecast data are provided for the sector’s total asset and liability growth, client loans, and client deposits. Forecasts for key ratios including the loan-deposit ratio and the loan-asset ratio are also included, as well as core macro-economic forecasts.

Data is presented in both local currency and US dollar terms.Each report examines key drivers of growth and future prospects, including the macroeconomic situation, the level of development and potential for growth of the banking sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, government policy and the regulatory environment. Central to BMI’s analysis are our unique Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings. BMI’s unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rating provides a clear, quantified, independent assessment of the opportunities and dangers of operating in each market. The methodology draws together our in-depth knowledge of competitive pressures, our comprehensive industry market forecasts, and our Country Risk team’s unrivalled analysis of economic, political and operational risks.The reports also feature profiles of leading banks, covering total assets, liabilities, client deposits, lending, bond holdings, main products and services, competitive positioning and ownership structure.

Table Of Contents

South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q3 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators 7
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Key Ratios, December 2015 7
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2015-2020 (%) 7
Table: Ranking Out Of 75 Countries Reviewed In 2016 8
Table: Commercial Banking Sector Indicators, 2013-2020 8
SWOT 9
Commercial Banking 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Industry Trend Analysis 14
Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 17
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 17
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index 18
Market Overview 19
Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Outlook 19
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios, 2014 19
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, 2016 20
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (USDbn) 21
Table: Comparison Of USD Per Capita Deposits, 2016 22
Economic Analysis 23
Competitive Landscape 26
Market Structure 26
Protagonists 26
Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector 26
Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe 26
List Of Banks 27
Table: Member Banks 27
Company Profile 29
Absa Bank (Barclays Africa Group) 29
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 31
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 32
Table: Key Ratios (%) 32
African Bank 33
Table: Stock Market Indicators 35
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 35
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 35
Table: Key Ratios (%) 36
FirstRand 37
Table: Stock Market Indicators 39
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 40
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 40
Table: Key Ratios (%) 40
Investec 41
Table: Stock Market Indicators 43
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 43
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 43
Table: Key Ratios (%) 44
Nedbank Group 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators 47
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 47
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 48
Standard Bank 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators 51
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 51
Table: Balance Sheet (USDmn) 51
Table: Key Ratios (%) 52
Regional Overview 53
Industry Trend Analysis 53
Global Industry Overview 56
Industry Forecast 56
The Reserves Penalty 56
Mixed Results So Far 59
Not Far Enough, Or Too Far Already? 64
In The End, Negative Rates Unlikely To Become Much More Prevalent 65
Table: Negative Interest Rates - Summary 67
Demographic Forecast 68
Demographic Outlook 68
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025) 69
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 70
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025) 71
Methodology 73
Industry Forecast Methodology 73
Sector-Specific Methodology 74
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 75
Table: Commercial Banking Risk/Reward Index Indicators 76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 77

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