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Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 63 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates



BMI View:
There are numerous challenges facing producers of all commodities in Pakistan, chief amongthem a dire security situation, erratic power supply, lack of available finance and vulnerability to extremeweather events. Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the availability ofhigher-quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn, which should raise yields in the medium term. We also notethat there have been recent positive developments in the country's energy sector that, if sustained, couldprove beneficial for cotton and rice producers in particular. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2020also gives some grounds for optimism regarding cotton exports.

Key BMI Forecasts


- Cotton consumption growth to 2020: -1.5% to 10.4mn 480lb bales. High base effects and a localsupply shock in the early years of our forecast period will see a decrease in cotton demand.

- Wheat production growth to 2019/20: 2.5% to 26.6mn tonnes. Production growth will be modestdespite government efforts to reduce input costs .

- 2016 real GDP growth: 4.7%. Up from 4.2% in 2015. Forecast to grow annually by 4.2% to 2020.

- Consumer price inflation (ave): 4.5% in 2016 (down from 4.6% in 2015).

Table Of Contents

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Industry Forecast 12
Rice Outlook 12
Latest Updates 12
Table: Pakistan - Rice Production and Consumption Outlook 12
Table: Risks To Outlook 13
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 15
Grains Outlook 16
Latest Updates 16
Table: Pakistan - Grains Production and Consumption Outlook 17
Table: Risks To Outlook 18
Structural Trends 18
Table: Grains Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 20
Cotton Outlook 22
Latest Updates 22
Table: Pakistan - Cotton Production and Consumption Outlook 22
Table: Risks To Outlook 23
Structural Trends 23
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2020) 25
Commodity Price Analysis 26
Global - Global Commodities Strategy 26
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 26
Upstream Analysis 28
Asia Machinery Outlook 28
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 33
Asia GM Outlook 35
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use (mn hectares) 39
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 40
Downstream Analysis 46
Food 46
Latest Updates 46
Structural Trends 47
Table: Food Sales (Pakistan 2013-2020) 48
Regional Overview 50
Competitive Landscape 56
Table: Main Agricultural Companies 56
Demographic Forecast 57
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025) 58
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025) 58
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025) 59
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025) 60
Methodology 62
Industry Forecast Methodology 62
Sector-Specific Methodology 63

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ref:plp2016

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