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Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 89 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: We take a cautious view of the prospects for the Pakistani agribusiness sector. There are
numerous challenges facing producers of all commodities covered by this report, chief among them are a dire security situation, erratic power supply, lack of availability of finance and vulnerability to extreme weather events. The sugar industry is the sub-sector we view as least promising due to its high production costs and poor relations between growers and processors. Nevertheless, the government has taken some positive steps to improve the availability of higher quality seeds for rice, wheat and corn which should raise yields in the medium term. Our expectation for rising prices out to 2019 also gives some grounds for optimism regarding the key export commodities of rice and cotton.

Key Forecasts

- Cotton consumption growth to 2019: 5.2% to 12.5mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements with the EU will see an increase in demand from the textile industry, but higher prices will see growth rates moderate in the latter years of the forecast period.

Table Of Contents

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Agribusiness 10
Operational Risk 12
Industry Forecast 14
Rice Outlook 14
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 15
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 19
Sugar Outlook 21
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 22
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 25
Grains Outlook 27
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 29
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 30
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 33
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 33
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 34
Cotton Outlook 35
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2014-2019) 36
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2009-2014) 40
Commodities Forecast 41
Monthly Softs Strategy 41
Table: India - Monsoon Rainfall, Irrigation And Production In The Main Agricultural States 45
Monthly Grains Strategy 46
Table: Grain Prices With Select Metrics (USc/bushel) 47
Upstream Analysis 49
Asia GM Outlook 49
Table: Selected Countries - GM Crops Use 51
Asia Machinery Outlook 52
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares 56
Asia Fertiliser Outlook 60
Downstream Analysis 65
Mass Grocery Retail 65
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2014-2019) 66
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2020 67
Food 68
Food Consumption 68
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2019) 69
Confectionery 69
Fish 69
Dairy 70
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2014-2019) 70
Drink 71
Hot Drinks 71
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2014-2019) 72
Soft Drinks 72
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production and Trade (Pakistan 2014-2019) 74
Regional Overview 76
Table: IMPACT OF EL NIÑO ON CROPS 80
Competitive Landscape 82
Table: Main Agricultural Companies 82
Demographic Forecast 83
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Pakistan 1990-2025) 84
Table: Key Population Ratios (Pakistan 1990-2025) 84
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Pakistan 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group (Pakistan 1990-2025) 85
Table: Population By Age Group % (Pakistan 1990-2025) 86
Methodology 88
Industry Forecast Methodology 88
Sector-Specific Methodology 89

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