Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2014

  • August 2014
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 104 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View:
A strong rice harvest is expected for 2014/15 although the same is true for other major producers, leading to underwhelming prices for exporters. A similar situation obtains for sugar, albeit with more drastic consequences as millers claim they are unable to break even on the back of rock-bottom prices and have withheld payments from cane growers. Wheat production is expected to rebound from last year's rain-hit harvest and exports should exceed imports. A boost to domestic supply of the staple grain would be welcome as food prices have soared leading the authorities to contemplate intervening to implement further subsidies on wheat flour. The cotton sector could stand to benefit from access to another giant market hard on the heels of a deal with the EU, as a trade deal with India seems increasingly likely.

Key Forecasts
- Cotton consumption growth to 2018: 10.5% to 12.2mn 480lb bales. Favourable trade agreements with the EU will see an increase in demand from the textile industry, but higher prices will see growth rates moderate in the later years of the forecast period.
- Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 11.0% to 26.1mn tonnes. Production growth will be slow as farmers struggle with rising input costs, particularly fuel and fertiliser.

Table Of Contents

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q4 2014
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Agribusiness . 9
Business Environment .. 11
Industry Forecast .. 12
Rice Outlook 12
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2018).. . 13
Table: Rice Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013).. . 16
Sugar Outlook . 17
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018).19
Table: Sugar Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013).21
Grains Outlook 22
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018).25
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018).. 25
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2013-2018). . 25
Table: Wheat Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013).28
Table: Corn Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013).. 28
Table: Barley Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013). . 28
Cotton Outlook 30
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2012-2018). . 31
Table: Cotton Production and Consumption (Pakistan 2008-2013). . 34
Commodities Forecast . 35
Monthly Grains Strategy 35
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 43
Monthly Softs Strategy .. 43
Table: Select Commodities - Performance and BMI Forecasts 52
Upstream Analysis 53
Asia Machinery Outlook 53
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)..55
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares . 59
Asia GM Outlook . 63
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use In 2012. 69
Asia Fertiliser Outlook . 70
Table: India - Fertiliser Subsidies, INR/kg . 73
Downstream Analysis 77
Food . 77
Food Consumption . 77
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2011-2018). . 78
Canned Food 78
Confectionery 79
Fish . 79
Dairy 79
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2018) 80
Drink 81
Hot Drinks 81
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2018).. . 82
Soft Drinks 83
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2018).84
Alcoholic Drinks 86
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production and Trade - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2018)..87
Mass Grocery Retail 87
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data and Forecasts (Pakistan 2013-2018). . 89
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data and Forecasts, 2012-2020. . 89
Regional Overview 90
Table: Indonesia and Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity and Utilisation Rate..92
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates and Programmes.. 96
Competitive Landscape 98
Table: Main Agricultural Companies.. . 98
Demographic Forecast . 99
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000).100
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)..101
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020.. . 102
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 102
Methodology 103
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 103
Sector-Specific Methodology .. 104

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