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Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2016

  • August 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 72 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


BMI View:

Russia's poor macroeconomic fundamentals, including a weak rouble exacerbated by international sanctions and a fiscal deficit driven by lower oil revenue, underpin our bearish outlook for the country's construction sector. Russia's residential and non-residential construction sector will be the primary victim of Russia's economic weakness and emerge as the clear underperformer, while the growth prospects for Russia's infrastructure sector are comparatively brighter on the back of a raft of high-value pipeline and transport projects. Latest Updates And Structural Trends

- International sanctions, which were renewed by the EU in June for a period of six months, continue to weigh on our real growth forecast for Russia's construction sector, which we have revised downward to -2.25% from -1.84% for 2016. However, we note that, in our view, international sanctions are likely to be lifted or eased at some point in 2017, providing a limited degree of upside risk to our longer-term growth forecast.

- China will continue to emerge as the primary external financier of Russian infrastructure projects, as sanctions will largely preclude state-owned Russian banks from accessing global financial markets until at least January 2017. While China is investing across all areas of Russian infrastructure, it has been particularly active in investing in transport and energy projects throughout Russia's Far East that further its geopolitical ambitions.

- We expect the Oil and Gas Pipeline subsector to outperform over the next five years with an annualised average growth rate of 3.6% as the Russian government prioritises funding for economically and geopolitically vital pipeline projects like Power of Siberia.

Table Of Contents

Russia Infrastructure Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Infrastructure - Construction Industry Forecasts (Russia 2015-2025) 7
Table: Infrastructure Risk Reward Index (Russia 2016) 8
SWOT 9
Infrastructure SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 11
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 11
Bleak Infrastructure Outlook To Continue In 2016 11
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 12
Structural Trends 12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 19
Structural Trends 20
Table: Key Projects: Transport 27
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview 28
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2016-2025) 28
Structural Trends 29
Table: Key Projects: Energy and Utilities 35
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview 36
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2015-2025) 36
Structural Trends 37
Government Policies To Support Housing Market 41
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects 43
Table: Key Projects: Construction and Social Infrastructure 43
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 44
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 44
Rewards 44
Risks 44
CEE Infrastructure RRI: EU Funding Essential As Risks Deter Private Investors 46
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index 51
Market Overview 52
Competitive Landscape 52
Table: Competitive Landscape 52
Company Profile 55
Mostootryad No19 55
Strabag 57
Methodology 65
Industry Forecast Methodology 65
Sector-Specific Methodology 66
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 70
Sector-Specific Methodology 71
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Index Indicators 71
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 72

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