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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016

  • October 2016
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 91 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates
BMI View:

As a result of lower-than-expected real GDP growth for H116, we have downgraded our shortterm outlook for Nigeria's pharmaceutical market slightly; however, its long-term growth outlook remains largely positive. Despite our downgrade, the market is still growing and we highlight Nigeria as one of the more attractive destinations for pharmaceutical companies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Key drivers of growth will be the government's prioritisation of the healthcare sector and improvements to domestic manufacturing capabilities, although a high abundance of counterfeit drugs and corruption will continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: NGN175.89bn (USD889mn) in 2015 to NGN185.71bn (USD735mn) in 2016; +4.4% in local currency terms and -17.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.

- Healthcare: NGN3.63trn (USD18.35bn) in 2015 to NGN3.97trn (USD15.90bn) in 2016; +9.5% in local currency terms and -13.3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in line with last quarter.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2016
BMI Industry View 7
Table: Headline Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 7
SWOT 9
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 15
Healthcare Market Forecast 16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 21
Patented Drug Market Forecast 22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 25
OTC Medicine Market 26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2012-2020) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2014-2020) 31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Nigeria 2014-2020) 32
Industry Risk Reward Index 33
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2016 33
Nigeria Risk/Reward Index 41
Rewards 41
Risks 42
Regulatory Review 43
Intellectual Property Issues 45
Pricing Regime 47
Reimbursement Regime 47
Market Overview 48
Healthcare Sector 48
Table: Healthcare Resources (Nigeria 2010-2015) 49
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Nigeria 2010-2015) 50
Table: Healthcare Activity (Nigeria 2010-2015) 50
Research and Development 57
Clinical Trials 57
Epidemiology 58
Competitive Landscape 61
Research-Based Industry 61
Table: Multinational Market Activity 63
Generic Drugmakers 64
Pharmaceutical Distribution and Retail Sector 65
Company Profile 67
GlaxoSmithKline 67
Fidson Healthcare 70
May and Baker 73
Merck and Co 75
Neimeth Pharmaceuticals 77
Demographic Forecast 80
Demographic Outlook 80
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 81
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 81
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 82
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 83
Glossary 85
Methodology 87
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 87
Notes On Methodology 88
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 89
Index Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 90
Indicator Weightings 91

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