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Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2015

  • August 2015
  • -
  • Business Monitor International
  • -
  • 123 pages

Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates

BMI View: The introduction of private community microinsurance in Nigeria's Lagos state could provide a
more affordable alternative to the government-introduced coverage scheme of which uptake has been slow.
Improved health insurance coverage will help drive demand for pharmaceuticals and healthcare services over the long term. However, Nigeria's deteriorating economic outlook, subsequent naira depreciation and rise in inflation will continue to be felt by the pharmaceutical sector in 2015. Pharmaceutical market growth will slow given the decline in affordability levels, with both government and private consumption forecast to decline.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: NGN170.28bn (USD1.03bn) in 2014 to NGN175.97bn (USD820mn) in 2015; +3.3% in local currency terms and -20.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards from last quarter.
- Healthcare: NGN3,551.82bn (USD21.50bn) in 2014 to NGN3,978.58bn (USD18.51bn) in 2015; +12.0% in local currency terms and -13.9% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from last quarter.

Table Of Contents

Nigeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2015
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT 10
Political 13
Economic 14
Operational Risk 15
Industry Forecast 17
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 17
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 19
Healthcare Market Forecast 20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 22
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 23
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 25
Patented Drug Market Forecast 26
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 27
Generic Drug Market Forecast 28
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2011-2019) 32
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Nigeria 2013-2019) 35
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Nigeria 2013-2019) 35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 36
Macroeconomic Forecasts 38
Economic Analysis 38
Table: Economic Activity (Nigeria 2010-2019) 44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 45
Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Index - Q4 2015 45
Nigeria Risk/Reward Index 52
Rewards 52
Risks 53
Market Overview 54
Industry Trends And Developments 55
Epidemiology 55
Maternal And Child Health 56
Non-Communicable Diseases 56
Communicable Disease 56
Healthcare Sector 57
Table: Healthcare Resources (Nigeria 2009-2014) 58
Table: Healthcare Personnel (Nigeria 2009-2014) 58
Table: Healthcare Activity (Nigeria 2009-2014) 59
Healthcare Sector Developments 59
Healthcare Financing 60
Healthcare Provision 61
Health Insurance 62
Traditional Medicine 64
Telemedicine 65
Research and Development 66
Clinical Trials 66
Regulatory Development 69
Regulatory Regime 69
Domestic Drugmakers 70
Intellectual Property Regime 71
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 73
National Drug Policy 74
Medical Tourism 74
Competitive Landscape 76
Domestic Industry 77
Foreign Industry 79
Pharmaceutical Distribution 81
Company Profile 83
Drugfield Pharmaceuticals 83
Emzor Pharmaceutical Industries 85
GlaxoSmithKline 87
Fidson Healthcare 90
May and Baker 93
Merck and Co 95
Neimeth Pharmaceuticals 97
Neros Pharmaceuticals 100
Nigerian-German Chemicals (NGC) 102
Novartis 105
Pfizer 107
Sanofi 110
Demographic Forecast 112
Demographic Outlook 112
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Nigeria 1990-2025) 113
Table: Key Population Ratios (Nigeria 1990-2025) 113
Table: Urban/Rural Population and Life Expectancy (Nigeria 1990-2025) 114
Table: Population By Age Group (Nigeria 1990-2025) 114
Table: Population By Age Group % (Nigeria 1990-2025) 115
Glossary 117
Methodology 119
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 119
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model 119
Notes On Methodology 120
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 121
Index Overview 122
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 122
Indicator Weightings 123

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